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Could do with a haircut

The photo that was included in the dossier handed to Peru's government by Alberto Fujimori's children, pleading for an official pardon.

As for special treatment in a Peru prison, you can see he gets it from this photo. There are sheets and a pillow.

UPDATE: Photo versions already appearing, including this one, this one and this below:

And this one from @jfowks

Junior miner Liberty Silver under double scrutiny

We highly recommend this Peter Koven report in today's Financial Post for more information on the growing hoo-hah around Liberty Silver ( (LBSV.ob), the promo pumped junior that was halted by the SEC a week (and a bit) ago and is now under official halt status in Canada, too. Koven does a particularly good job on the Canadian people angle of LSL and although doesn't say it out loud, there's clearly a connection to be drawn between the high profile people on the LSL board and the way in which LSL managed to by-pass Venture Exchange listing to get quoted immediately on the TSX. Anyway, go read Koven's story for yourself and get more informed without me blathering in your ear.

We also remind readers of our own modest efforts on this story, earlier in the week. They can be found on this link.

Five days of metals and miners; October 13th

Our regular Saturday slot of the last five days' worth of action in the gold bullion ETF (GLD), the silver bullion  ETF (SLV), the miner ETF (GDX), the junior miner ETF (GDXJ) and the copper ETF (COPX).

A losing week for all the squiggly lines we follow. Hardly a disaster week, but a loser all the same. Notably, the worst of the bunch was the gold miner producer ETF (GDX), with its first real retreat since the Bouncing Bernanke QE3 announcement days. The others, all around a point off for the week.


Anglo American (AAL.L) (AAUKY) being kicked out of Venezuela and its nickel operation to be nationalized

Setty has the exclusive right here. Go read for yourself, but here's how his scoop kicks off:

"Anglo American has a nickel mine in Venezuela. A month from now, from what I hear, that won’t be the case. The concessions now being mined expire..." continues here

The Friday OT: Robert Frost; Mending Wall (read by Robert Frost)

You have a recording of the man himself, reading one of his most famous verses. You have the words, you have images of the Berlin Wall. 

Something there is that doesn't love a wall.

The world's 50 most dangerous cities, all on one chart

Via the excellent blog Diverging Markets and the always informative seguridad y justicia page, we get this chart made from stats supplied by Consejo Ciudadano para la Seguridad Pública y la Justicia Penal.

Click chart to significantly ingranderate image (or embiggenfy, if you prefer)

And thusly San Pedro Sula was the most dangerous city in the world last year 2011, beating out Ciudad Juarez and all the others listed. Also note that of the top 20, 100% are in Latin America. Diverging Markets adds the datapoint that of the full 50, 14 are in Brazil, 12 in Mexico and 5 in Colombia.

Five hundred and twenty years ago today...

...the person known in the English language as Christopher Colombus, while attempting to find a new route to India, arrived on the shores of The Americas. If he were around today he would have had the same result using Apple Maps.

Chart of the day is...

...the US Dollar (USD) Chinese Renminbi/Yuan (CNY) exchange rate, last five years:

As the FT notes, it's the highest in the last 19 years this morning.


Peru benchmark interest rate stays at 4.25% for the 17th straight month

Peru central banker? Easy Life! The board met again today and decided it was best not to fiddle with the benchmark interest rate of the country. For the 17th month running.

From here

Minyanville does the Sanchez-Paredes

Snappily entitled "Gold Mining Company Actually Trafficking Cocaine: Authorities" and your humble scribe is quoted. 

Fortuna Silver (FSM) ( 3q12 silver production looks like this

NR here, silver numbers here. By the way, gold production was 498oz down on 2q12. 

Your humble scribe has fielded several mails on this company in the last 48 hours, the general theme "buy this pullback?". We'll go into it on Sunday subbers, as there's no need to rush into a decision in the next 48 hours as far as fundies are concerned. 

Chart of the day is..., dailies:

All those high falutin' Gordon Gekko wannabes in Bay and Howe Streets can't use gold for their alpha. Time for the gold producers.


Gold and cocaine and Peru and USJD and funstuff

Here's a US justice dept NR headline dated today, October 10th:

"Manhattan U.S. Attorney Announces Seizure Of Over $31 Million In Connection With An International Drug Trafficking And Money Laundering Scheme"

And here's a bit of the NR with the name Sanchez-Paredes in it:

" announced the seizure of over $31 million from nine bank accounts in the United States, which are alleged to have been connected to an international money laundering scheme run by a drug trafficking organization operated by members of the Sanchez-Paredes family (the “Sanchez-Paredes DTO”), a family that Peruvian law enforcement authorities have been investigating since the early 1980s."

And here's a bit about the San Simon gold mine:

 "For example, the Sanchez-Paredes DTO owns two mining companies, CIA Minera Aurifera Santa Rosa SA (“Comarsa”), and CIA Minera San Simon (“San Simon”), which purport to be in the business of mining gold, but are believed to be in the business of producing cocaine. In March 2007, Peruvian authorities seized approximately 125 tons of calcium oxide, a chemical used to both mine gold and produce cocaine, that were later identified as having been purchased by Comarsa and San Simon. Comarsa’s mining records show that on numerous occasions, the amount of calcium oxide it used did not correspond with the amounts needed to process gold. This suggests that Comarsa is not actually involved in the business of mining gold, but rather in the business of producing cocaine."

My thanks to JR for the headsup.

Brazilian Real forex (BRL) datapoint of love

Top Brazilonomics blogger Drunkeynesian informs us that exactly ten years ago today on October 10th 2002, the Brazilian Real (BRL) traded at 4:1 to the US Dollar (USD). He has the chart and everything, right here.

In a shocking development, the world notices that Venezuelans resident in Miami are not a representative pool of their fellow nationals

This table shows the results of how the 8,509 Venezuelans resident in the Southeast of the USA (nearly all in Miami) voted in the 2012 Venezuela Presidential election, according to the official Venezuela election body (CNE) figures and this report:

(if you're wondering, the 6 votes were scored by Reina Sequera, an independent candidate)

So well done Capriles, scoring 99% of the Miami vote, which compares quite favourably to the overall Chávez 55.14% / 44.24% win over Capriles with 97.65% of the votes now counted. However, we can fully expect the Northern media channels to continue to faithfully represent the views of the 8,500 Miami expats more than the country. Because that's how democracy works.


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Sharing beautiful things is one of the pleasures of a blog, and...

...Ronaldinho Gaucho's goal, October 6th 2012, is one of them.

If you only watch one goal being scored this year, make it this one.

And about his emotions afterwards: His stepfather died the day before the match and he nearly didn't play due to the news. Instead he did and scored three goals in the 6-0 win. 

On the road

Posting will be light for a couple of days, as your author has people to see. About things. And stuff. So while I'm away, you can click on this and order your copy of Dominic Frisby's new book 'Life After The State' (no I'm not on commission, I just want to see it happen). In the words of the man himself...
"This book is the culmination of these seven years of study, bordering on obsession. Just as I saw the financial crash of 2008 coming, I now see another one, even more calamitous, headed our way; only this one has serious political ramifications as well. But now, as then, not one high-profile politician, economist or journalist seems to "get it" - because not one of them have correctly identified the cause of our problems.

"I had never thought, before, about the nature of money. I never realised that there is a direct link between what we use as money and liberty, honesty and efficiency. It is in money – the blood of an economy – that our salvation lies.

"Support this book, and I’ll explain all"

And you can check out the contents by clicking here and hearing the author himself read chapter one to you, so your excuses for not ordering your copy are running thin, aren't they?

Chart of the day is...

...this. There can be only one.

That's not the final, all down official percentages because we still have about 7% of votes to be counted, so give it  couple of days and the numbers after the decimals may change a bit. But it's a done deal by anyone's standards. And by the way, recall how all through this campaign your humble scribe has pointed to Datanálisis as the "best of a bad bunch" when it comes to Venezuela opinion polls? Well folks, look at what some of Datanálisis's staunchest critics (and bigtime Capriles supporters) are now saying:

"Readers of this blog know that for the past few weeks, we (mostly me, really) have raised serious doubts about Datanálisis’ poll predictions. At the same time, we relied on Consultores 21′s projection that Capriles was ahead.
The results were a clear endorsement of Datanálisis, who predicted the outcome pretty nicely, and a serious embarassment to Consultores 21.
So in that regard, kudos to Datanálisis and their team. They can be proud, and I apologize for criticizing them."



Chávez wins

With 90% of ballots counted, Chávez has 54.42% of the valid vote, Capriles: 44.97%. The end.

And now allow me to re-post IKN's final thought on the Venezuela bunfest, dated September 21st 2012. the bit highlighted in red is highlighted in red.

We're now two weeks and a bit from the October 7th vote that will decide whether Hugo Chávez Frías keeps his job or whether Henrique Capriles Radonski gets a new job. As the media bullshit chatter is already ratcheting up and is going to get a lot worse in the days left, IKN is therefore going to keep away from all the false polemics and liberty/tyranny/democracy/dictatorship/freedom/fair/fraud tosh and nonsense that your media channels of choice are bound to subject you to and make this post today our final comment on the subject until October 8th minimum. So for the record...
  • I think Chávez is favourite and if you wanted a book number from me, I'd go for something around 75% chance. Purely seat-of-pants subjective stuff. Put another gun to my head and I'd go for Chávez securing 55% of valid votes come the big day. Again, guesstimate.
  • However, this means that Capriles has about 24% more chance than any other candidate running against Chávez in recent years and his campaign shouldn't be written off. Henrique Capriles has run a good campaign, a smart campaign and has played to his strengths more than trying to attack Chávez on any given occasion. That type of slugfest would have favoured Chávez much more, so Capriles' strategic decision to keep away from the insult-swapping type of campaign has been a good one.  Bottom line: I'd consider it a surprise if he wins, but not a stunning surprise.
  • But one 100% dead cert is that media coverage and anal yst comment is going to be all-but insufferable. World-and-his-spouse all suddenly experts on the intricacies of Venezuelan politics? Why of course!
  • The final confident prediction is that on October 8th, the losers will be calling fraud. That, my fine feathered friends, is a given.

So, until October 8th and if you really have the right type of masochistic streak that insists you keep up with the BS show, Two Weeks Notice is as good a filter as any, I think.  

Venezuela unofficial official word gives Chávez as the likely winner

No fat lady singing, but the unofficial/official word leaking out of the CNE electoral body now is that Hugo Chávez gets to keep his job and has won today's Presidential election in Venezuela by around 1m votes.
So which pollster looks like getting closest? Here are all the September poll results from all the pollsters in Venezuela, wildly to the right, wildly to the left and all serious and pretending to be in the middle, too. From this link:

For me, looks like the average of all was better than any particular.

UPDATE: We now have an official result from the CNE: Chávez wins. With 90% of ballots counted, Chávez has 54.42% of the valid vote, Capriles: 44.97%. The end.

The IKN Weekly, out now

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