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10/26/13

Peru's cocaine flights

I read the report by IDL Reporteros on the way in which Peru's cocaine was being shipped out by light aircraft to a multitude of neighbouring countries earlier in the week and even though it was in Spanish, I nearly linked it up here on IKN because it was such a great bit of reporting.

But the good news is that IDL has now run an English language version of the note, which you can read here. It's the single best thing you'll read about South America this week, an excellent piece of investigation by reporter Romina Mella. Here's a very small taster from the whole thing:
The costs of renting an aircraft oscillate between $20 thousand and $30 thousand per flight, while the price for use of the runway varies between $10 thousand and $20 thousand. The airstrips are used, at most, two or three times in a row by a clan. After this, the landing strip’s location is changed in order to avoid detection, according to what a source told IDL-Reporteros. “As a safety measure, just when they are arriving at the VRAE they do decide where to land. They rely on UHF radios to communicate.
Continues here

UPDATED: Chilean hero! Alexis Sánchez's goal today

A thing of great beauty, recommended repeat viewing of this 12 second youtube:


Alexis had a tough season last year, but has been sparkling under Tata Martino in this year's version of Barcelona. And now, the winning goal in a 2-1 versus Real Madrid, and what a goal too. CHILENO!


UPDATE: OK, today we go for a little more. There are several things that make this moment one of footballing beauty, including these three:

1) The goal itself, just so wonderfully taken. Sánchez saw the goalie slightly off his line and made the decision to lob him before his final turn around the defender. Notice how Lopez knew he was out of position (a factor that came from the surprise through-ball characteristics more than an out-and-out mistake by him) and was shuffling back before the strike, but wasn't there at the big moment.

2) The occasion: The same way as great wine moments are a combo of a wine and the time/place of drinking, so is a great goal moment. You're 1-0 up at home, the Nou Camp with just under 100,000 of the most fanatical supporters imaginable watching you from the stands and against your greatest rival and Real are coming back in the match. The final score is 2-1. Your goal was the difference, both psychologically and in final reality. And you win it with a golazo. This is the kind of crap that doesn't happen, the things that get schoolboys into trouble for daydreaming in class. And look at that face in the photo above!

3) The technique and intelligence of Sánchez. An important element is that Alexis Sánchez is a natural left footer and favours his left foot over his right, while this goal came from his right foot. So first look at the deft first touch, a backheel to himself, which makes room by stepping back from the defender, Varane. Now Varane has done his homework on the people he defends against and knows Sánchez prefers his left foot for scoring, so look again how he moves in to mark Alexis with body shaped to the left in order to block out his preference. Good defending in theory, but Alexis surprises him by going to the right and then leaves him no time at all to cover before getting his perfect, right-footed lob away. That's the hallmark of a top class and fast thinking attacker.

Yes, of course there were, are and will be "better goals" scored, but that's not the point. This was a moment of beauty, period. It's not something to be compared, it's something to be shared. Those rare moments when sport lifts you up and affirms life. My stars, pity the person who doesn't have any appreciation for Association Football because Pelé is right and they're all wrong. It is the beautiful game.

Thank you, Alexis Sánchez.







10/25/13

Why veterans and "key players" such as Frank Giustra, Randall Oliphant, Frank Holmes and Paul Reynolds are now saying they're bullish on gold and resource stocks?

Your possible answers:

1) They want to sell them to you, stupid.  
2) They've bought all they can and now want your money to push them higher before they sell to somebody even more stupid than you are. 
3) They're being totally open and honest about their financial viewpoints for the first time since they entered into the capital markets arena. And if you believe this one then you're really stupid. 
4) The CEOs and chairs, via their paid-for whore newsletter writers and brokerage captains, need OPM and are looking to run placements in their own companies soon.
 Send in your answers to:

@tommyhump
Useful Idiot to Rich People
Canada (via Fontainebleau Hotel, Miami Beach, Fla)

Venezuela's Vice-Ministry of the Supreme Social Happiness of the People

When your humble scribe clicked through to this Greg Weeks post entitled "Vice-Minister of the Supreme Social Happiness of the People" I thought it was some sort of joke or riff title. But no, it's straight true, the government of Venezuela has created a new vice-ministry, that's its name and its job is indeed to promote supreme social happiness amongst the country's people.

I am not making this up.

Have these people no sense of history? Or irony?

Southern Copper (SCCO) at Tia Maria

On October 23rd, when discussing the upcoming presentation and informative talk to be given by Southern Copper (SCCO) as part of the Tia Maria copper project's re-started environmental impact permitting process, in the Islay region of Peru, the company spokesperson recognized that there was significant opposition to the project and protests may occur, but also said, "If we see that there's no way of guaranteeing safety for the talk we won't do it".

Yesterday October 24th the meeting went ahead. Here's an extract from how La Republica reported on events this morning (translated):

The workshop started just after 6pm. A few minutes later, a group of protesters started banging on the door and accusing the people participating in the workshop of not being from the zone (affected by the eventual mine).
As the violence increased, the members of the presentation committee, Alberto Dáiz representing the Ministry of Energy and Mining and José Vargas the project manager, continued their presentation as if nothing was happening (outside). Several masked protesters, who said they were local farmers, began to get violent and threaten the hired Southern Copper security personnel and police officers.
José Vargas apparently did not hear the shouts from the protesters and continued to quickly explain about the project. Those present at the workshop, now becoming more nervous, started gathering at the front of the hall. Some women started crying. But Vargas asked for a round of applause for the project. "We're not going to give them the pleasure of interrrupting the workshop", he said, while telling the presentation team to keep showing the presentation slides that were barely understood (by those present).
At 6:49pm a molotov cocktail was thrown from the street which landed on the fabric canopy covering the auditorium. The audience panicked, but the representative from the mine shouted out, "We won't fall into their boycott!".
Inside, fire fighters managed to put out the flames and the workshop continued. A few minutes later police officers began to come into the auditorium with injuries. "They were going to kill us", said one of them with a fractured skull. Another nine of his colleagues were also bleeding.
The presentation continued while police outside launched tear gas at the protesters. At the same time, some of the participants in the workshop calmly asked about the benefits of the project. It all finished at 7:44pm. The mining company representative signed the presentation act along with members of the Mining and Energy Ministry. According to Alberto Díaz and José Vargas, the event had been a success.

And here's how that successful event finished for the police officers mentioned above:



Gold technical analysis

What? You want to know what I think about the subject?



Yes, there are exceptions to the rule. There are practitioners of TA who do recognize mistakes and aren't full up to the brim with their own wonderfulness, i.e. roughly one in twenty of them.


Chart of the day is...

...the one on this link over at Setty's place, which does a visually elegant job in showing the difference between the forecasts for future oil production at Venezuela's PDVSA State oil company and the reality of the situation. It's from a couple of days ago (as I play catch-up to the world) and it's not getting pasted here, because the job Setty did is very good and the least you can do is give him one click on his website in order to look.

Seriously, go look. A great bit of sleuthing presented in a way that's very appealing and easy to digest.

10/24/13

Conway Resources (CWY.v) and English how she is spoked

You know the end of this junior charade can't be that far away when the despair doesn't just show up in the messages from the dead and dying companies, but the grammar as well. Here's Conway Resources (CWY.v) NR from today and yup it's verbatim, with thanks to reader JJ for the headsup:
Ressources Conway announces her closure
QUEBEC, Oct. 24, 2013 /CNW Telbec/ - Conway Resources Inc. ("Conway" or the "Company") (TSXV: CWY) is pleased to announce that she intends(hears) to proceed to the closure(lock) of the Company(Society) by making a transfer of the good(property) by the management agent Lemieux and Nolet inc. on October 24th, 2013.
Mr. Laurent Beaudoin, President and Chief Executive Officer of Conway, said: "the lack of the annual financing and the increase of expenses for a junior public Society, had the effect of maintaining a rate of high debts".
More information can be found on website at: www.lemieuxnoletsyndic.com
About Conway Resources Inc.

And after that, there's only one possible thing to add:



Fetchez la vache

Home again home again...

...jiggety jig.

One of the more productive road trips, with solid positives about preferred and covered companies, plus a new buy idea. All to be revealed in IKN234, out Sunday. Also, thanks due to TK, MT, DM+LM, RR and GC for the fun and giggles. Hell, all work and no play makes (etcetc)


10/22/13

So Lobito, how's that "big Pretium order" working out for you?

Casey's Louis Lobito Little Wolf James' update to Investment Alert clients #528, October 10th. It's the way in which those stink bids get filled that makes him neverwrong, yaknowz. But hey, if it was a good buy at 5 it must be a great one at 4....buy more Lobito, buy more!


xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Pretium Resources (PVG.TO, C$4.87, 102.3M SO, 110.9M FD, C$498.2M MCap, www.pretivm.com)
As you probably saw on our portfolio page, we believe the market's reaction is overdone. Given the skepticism prevailing among the company's many outspoken critics, the fact that the company's Qualified Person (Strathcona) for a major part of the critical bulk sample program quit is certainly alarming. But the reason why they quit matters, and the reason was a professional disagreement with the Other Qualified Person (Snowden) as to how to proceed. This is a very different thing from there being an actual problem with the bulk sample, or new doubts about the company's resources in the ground.
As we understand it, Strathcona wanted to base the bulk sample on a fraction of material mined, prepared via the sampling tower the company has built on site. But this would mean storing the remainder of the material, which would contain several thousand ounces of gold. Pretium wanted to recover all the gold—which, as a shareholder I approve of, and so did Snowden. Strathcona said it wasn't necessary, and the two Qualified Persons could not agree, so Strathcona quit.
Net: there's no real reason to believe there's anything wrong with Pretium's Valley of the Kings deposit.
What about the persistent criticisms, alleging that the resource model depends too much on multiple narrow high-grade veins? Well, there are so many of these high-grade veins, over so large an area, and much of the material in between also carries gold, if at a lower grade, that the skepticism has long seemed more than a bit exaggerated to us. (Sour grapes?)
I may be wrong, but as mentioned yesterday, I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and have instructed my broker to place what is, for me, a large order. And I know I'm not the only one here at Casey Research doing so. We had active stink bid guidance to buy under $5, which I hope was filled for many of you.

On the road



Your humble scribe is playing in different sandpit for a couple of days, therefore things will be light around here. But no Jack this time, a bit of Bill The Quill instead:

All the world's a stage,
And all the men and women merely players;
They have their exits and their entrances,
And one man in his time plays many parts,
His acts being seven ages. At first, the infant,
Mewling and puking in the nurse's arms.
Then the whining schoolboy, with his satchel
And shining morning face, creeping like snail
Unwillingly to school. And then the lover,
Sighing like furnace, with a woeful ballad
Made to his mistress' eyebrow. Then a soldier,
Full of strange oaths and bearded like the pard,
Jealous in honour, sudden and quick in quarrel,
Seeking the bubble reputation
Even in the canon's mouth. And then the justice,
In fair round belly with good capon lined,
With eyes severe and beard of formal cut,
Full of wise saws and modern instances;
And so he plays his part. The sixth age shifts
Into the lean and slippered pantaloon
With spectacles on nose and pouch on side;
His youthful hose, well saved, a world too wide
For his shrunk shank, and his big manly voice,
Turning again toward childish treble, pipes
And whistles in his sound. Last scene of all,
That ends this strange eventful history,
Is second childishness and mere oblivion,
Sans teeth, sans eyes, sans taste, sans everything.

As You Like It, Act2, Sc7, ll139-167

Jobs

No taper, gold reacts accordingly.



So, that was Tuesday.

That's a big long NR from Pretium (PVG) (PVG.to) today

And there's plenty to chew over, including more details on the Strathcona resignation, plus views of both Snowden and PVG on Strathcona's decision to withdraw. There's also the main event, the results of the first batch of rock in the bulk sample which has given up ~4 g/t gold (when Strathcona was expecting a tad over 2g). Like I say, there's lots of words to consider and mull over, but in the end it's going to come down to just one:

Representative

Or slightly longer, "Is the bulk sample representative of the whole of the deposit?" For me, that one is still unanswered. Anyway, go read the whole thing yourself.

UPDATE: PVG getting slammed at the open.

10/21/13

A Cardero Group company using misleading and unbalanced language? Really? Is it possible? After all this time?

Wow, what a shocker Henk! It's Douglas Adams time once again:
"If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family anatidae on our hands"
And to think that otherwise apparently respectable newsletter writers have recently called this latest example of Cardero bullshittery, Corvus Gold (KOR.to), their best pick for 2014. It never ceases to amaze me how many suckers there are out in juniorland, though Henk is less likely to agree with that as he knows there are thousands, just waiting to be fleeced. Dontcha Henk?

h/t jm

IKN explains the difference between a retail shareholder researching information and an asset manager looking for professional support

Your humble scribe received this mail from reader "K" today:

Otto,
Curious what your thoughts are on the political situation in Peru from a mining perspective, and if you’ve heard any chatter from the ground on Sulliden and their project?
Best,
"K"
If it were from a retailer I'd have answered happily enough. However, the mail was in fact received from a person working in a Canadian asset management company. Therefore, reader K, go fuck yourself. Seriously, go fuck yourself with a big nobbly wooden stick that has plenty of splinters. Your sense of entitlement makes us normal people want to puke in your face, you pathetic asshole. Is your idea of a "competitive edge" asking a dumbass running a free access blog for special, only-for-you information? Do you have any idea of the stupid that entails? Consider yourself a wanker of the first order until further notice, which is not allayed by phoning your mother for moral support you fucking dickweed.

Now fuck off forever.

PS: And by the way, realize that I'm being really really nice to you, way nicer than you deserve. Even bother to mail me again under any circumstances at all (even a stupid asshole cringing apology counts) and I'll publish your name, where you work, your mail address and I'll make sure your boss gets a copy of anything I write about you. Now. Fuck. Off. Forever. Never ever mail me again and be clear that your eyeballs on this blog are 100% unwelcome for all time. Asshole.


update: oh dear, that bright idea i had about not swearing on the blog any more...

Carpathian (CPN.to) rallies this morning...

...on this news, which makes your humble scribe chuckle:


The chortles come because it's another reminder that the junior mining stock market is populated by people who do not have the first clue as to what equity is. Today's rally now values this company at $47m, even though it's taking on (an undisclosed amount of) debt in order to "move forward" on its RDM project in Brazil. It's a case of buyers of CPN.to shares stating loudly and clearly that they have no idea why companies bother to publish balance sheets every three months (it's just a bunch of numbers, who cares?) and that even though they've been anally raped to the point where prolapses are not the exception but the rule in their lives they're more than happy to stand in line and wait for some market participant to roughly insert their large and throbbing virile member into their rectums in order that they once again experience the corporal sensation.

There y'see, I did all that without one swear word. Improving or what?

Full disclosure: No position in CPN.to. You think I'm nuts?

"The ocean is broken"

Ah, so you're in a good mood this fine Monday morning, eh? Well, let me change that immediately.

Ok, just joking, but sadly the contents of this report aren't funny. Compelling reading, but not funny. One man's boat trip from Australia to Japan to The USA and what he witnessed out there. Please read it.

Chart of the day is...

...gold, monthly:


Clyde Russell is one of the more thoughtful metals columnists out there. His note today about how "short gold" is commods traders' most popular bet right now shows why, because I too look at that above chart and think "late to the party, guys".  Have a read yourself.




10/20/13

Have you visited The Economic Geologist blog yet?

We reco'd it over the weekend, but as many of you slackers don't bother with the interwebnetpipes until monday comes around you may have missed the headsup on a great new blog, The Economic Geologist. But fear ye not because TEG has put up another interesting metalhead post, this time on magmatic sulphide deposits, which gives this humble corner of cyberspace a reasonable excuse to pump the blog to you again.

Here's the link, please use it. And sign on to the mailing service TEG has too, then I won't have to keep bugging you.

The IKN Weekly, out now





IKN233 has just been sent to subscribers.

Uruguay: "Official marijuana" to sell for U$1 per gram

According to news out today from Uruguay's National Drugs Group, as from the second half of 2014 (which "gives time to harvest and market") marijuana will be sold legally by the State at a set price of U$1,000 per kilo, or a dollar a gram if you prefer.

Among other details, sales will be restricted to people registered to a non-public database and any individual will be able to buy up to 40g per month. According to the government people, 1g is enough to build "one thick marijuana cigarette or two or three thin ones", which means they didn't bother going to Jamaica as part of their fact-finding mission.

Der Spiegel: NSA hacks the Mexico President's e-mail

My thanks to reader MR for the headsup. Link here, kicks off this way:
The NSA has been systematically eavesdropping on the Mexican government for years. It hacked into the president's public email account and gained deep insight into policymaking and the political system. The news is likely to hurt ties between the US and Mexico

The interesting thing about this is that it might cause a medium sized kerfuffle, but in the end nobody will care that much and it'll blow over. Which means Snowden's team has lost. And you have, too.

Peru Presidential Approval: Ollanta at 26%

His lowest score again, down by a point since last month:


Ipsos Peru also notes his wife Nadine at 40% approval. Girls are better than boys.