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11/16/13

Qatar to build a vagina

Qatar today unveiled its plans for the slave labour deathtrap Al Wakrah stadium, scheduled to be built in order to host the 2022 World Cup finals. The design is supposedly based on the Dhow boats used by Qataris for pearl diving, will seat 40,000 people and will be used for at least 16 of the matches.


Let's not beat about the bush; It's a vagina, ok? I'd also agree that it's a large, futuristic, artistic, elegant and colourful vagina. But it's a vagina.

Five days of metals and miners (guest appearance)

Way back in 2012 we'd run this chart every Saturday. Today it makes a comeback because... well have a look for yourself:



Gold (GLD) pootled about last week, ended neutral
Precious metals miners (GDX) pootled about last week, ended neutral
Junior miners (GDXJ) pootled about last week, ended neutral
But silver (SLV)? Now there's a thing.


11/15/13

The Friday OT: Arthur Brown; Fire

A hit in 1968, here's the man with the same song, live in 2013:



And the headgear, of course. Learn more about Arthur Brown and his crazy world here (including his famous bit part in Tommy). My thanks to reader B for the headsup on this impressive Youtube.

In case you needed reminding that stupid people are still keen to invest in exploration stage junior mining stocks...

...this week, Canada has offered up Alix Resources (AIX.v) for your due consideration:



I mean, no need to fret about minor things such as the shitstate of the company financials, which are laid out for all to see by Vancouver Venture right here. Because they said Bitcoin! And they said it out loud! High five!

Please, stop the stupid. 



Chart of the day is...

...copper, dailies:


It's the first time copper has been meaningfully under $3.20/lb since mid-August.

11/14/13

Colossus (CSI.to) 3q13 MD&A: The bit that counts

Right here:

The Company has historically relied on financing to fund the exploration and development of the Serra Pelada Mine. The Company will need additional capital in 2013 or 2014 to fund the completion of the development and the ramp-up of production and to meet existing obligations of the Serra Pelada Mine. The Company is currently investigating this financing and alternatives to strengthen its balance sheet to have further flexibility should other unforeseen circumstances or production delays occur. 
The rest is noise.

UPDATE: Oh yeah, there's also this from the NR:
Mr. Mel Leiderman, Mr. David Garofalo and Mr. Claudio Mancuso have resigned from the board of directors.

Colombia: Páramo decision expected between 15th and 18th of November

And today is the 14th of November.

This report tells of a recent meeting between the Environment Minister and local politicos who are in charge of areas affected by the decision. The mayors etc say that the official government declaration on the limits of the Páramo will be announced by next Monday latest.

So now you know.

Gold: The bottom is in

Eric's sold his gold. 

"In November, subsequent to quarter end, we completed the disposition of our gold bullion holdings for gross proceeds of approximately US$76 million ," continued Mr. Yuzpe. "This transaction gives us the financial flexibility to eliminate our outstanding debt, while providing the Company with approximately $24 million to pursue new investment opportunities."

SCP.to has decided to stop covering its debt with metal and definitively cover its debt using dollar bills. And as the brand new Pres/CEO of SCP Mister Steve (coincide?) correctly points out, this is an opportunity. To buy it all back at $1,500 in a few months' time.



Mission Mining (MISM): What could possibly go wrong?

My thanks to reader KC for the headsup on this obvious scam. With luck, a quick post here will save some greenhorn from handing their wedge over to the scumballs behind this one.

Here's the NR

NI 43-101 Report Confirms Approximately $25.5 Billion in Measured Gold and Silver Resources at Mission Mining Company’s Gold Star Mine in Nevada
LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mission Mining Company (OTC: MISM) - Mission Mining Company (MISM) today announced that the Company has received a National Instrument (‘NI’) 43-101 Mineral Resource Estimate Report by Zivkovic Geophysical Investigations, LLC, on the Company’s Gold Star Mine located in western Nevada. The report confirms total Measured mineral resources of 17.2 million ounces of gold and 148.3 million ounces of silver located in the top 30 feet of surface material across the six Gold Star claims.
Confirmation of approximately $25.5 Billion in Measured gold and silver resources at our Gold Star Mine is a highly significant event for Mission Mining Company and its shareholders,” stated CEO Carlton Wingett. “The results of this NI 43-101 Report have validated substantial quantities and concentrations of recoverable gold and silver ore at our Gold Star Mine. Based upon these findings, the Company will immediately pursue its business strategy to obtain the permits and funds necessary to place this immensely valuable mining property into production as quickly as possible.”
The Gold Star Mine is a large, alluvial, desert placer mining property comprised of six U.S. Bureau of Land Management claims making up 960 acres of land area located in Esmeralda County, Nevada near the historical Gold Rush town of Gold Point. Two Nevada state highways, as well as public utility electrical power, intersect and span the Gold Star Mine property, which makes heavy equipment access to the property ideal and year-round mining operations extremely practical.
Mr. Wingett continued, “Mission Mining Company is now obtaining estimates to commission a comprehensive drilling and testing program at its El Dorado Mine in preparation for obtaining an NI 43-101 Report to establish accurate gold, silver, and platinum group metals resource estimates at the seventeen BLM claims that make up the El Dorado mining property in San Bernardino County, California. Initial sampling data indicates extraordinary values might be proven to exist near the surface at El Dorado.”

And now let's meet the team, headed up by...


Carlton Wingett is CEO of Mission Mining Company. Mr. Wingett is a business professional with over thirty years experience in business and operations management, specializing in technical and project management. He has held senior positions with some of the world’s largest companies, including IBM Global Services, McKesson/HBOC, and First Data Corporation. Mr. Wingett has served on the board of directors of private and publicly traded companies and has established and operated successful businesses spanning various industries, including restaurants, specialty golf equipment manufacturing, industrial service and maintenance, and others. He attended Evangel University in Springfield, Missouri.

Chart of the day is...

...gold, the last five days:


Since the Friday drop, things have been steady enough. And in other news, 1) kind of busy with other things yesterday and today, so posting light and 2) for some reason, there seems to be a big lag on the RSS service at the moment. Normally I'll stick a post up and those nice people at Google will publish RSS in seconds, but recently it's been taking hours for the posts to turn up. Just so you know.

11/13/13

Rio Alto 3q13 earnings

EPS 9c per share (beating the consensus of 6c nicely), net of $15.907m. Costs under $34m, which was handily lower than my guesstimate. A good quarter and here are a couple of charts:



Plenty more where those came from. This is a stock that will rally today, gold price permitting. Yeah, I'm long.

UPDATE: And gotta like this from the MD&A: "Adjusted operating costs for 2013 were forecasted to be in the range of $675 to $725 per ounce of gold sold. Management now anticipates that adjusted operating cost per ounce will be approximately $650." That's because it means 4q13 op cash costs are now being estimated by the company at $530/oz.

UPDATE 2: And the NR is out. Read it here.

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio, 12 months:



Ever decreasing circles.

11/12/13

Endeavour Mining's (EDV.to) 3q13 in one word: Sucks

If I had a dollar for every time this thing has been pumped to me in the last two years, I'd have...ooooh, maybe 30 dollars. And that's decent money. Certainly better than the well sucks loss EDV.to has just posted. EPS negative 4c, net loss $17.387m, all that after selling over $114m worth of gold...


...(or The Yellow Metal, especially for Comet), or 91k oz Au, if you like.

The problem? Surprise surprise, it's costs. Because if you ignore all the silliness about made up cash cost numbers and mine cash flow they'll feed you and look at the numbers that matter (note to EDV IR department; that has to include depreciation and depletion, ask your CFO why)...


...then those big green bars of revenue you see above get squashed down to this, even before trivialities such as financing costs, tax and all sorts of et ceteras show up.

Reality; It sucks y'see. Almost as much as your 3q13 numbers, in fact. And on the subject of reality and even after that chunky $313m impairment you guys booked in 2q13, it kinda maybe guessing seems and strikes me that if your equity per share looks like this below (blue line) and your share price performance looks like that (red line)...


..there's still a big fat disconnect between what you people think your mines are worth and what they're really worth. So don't be afraid of taking another write-down at the end of this year, you know it makes sense.

The mining industry's opinion of the new Mexico royalty has suddenly changed

Before the 7.5% (+0.5% extra on precious metals) royalty law was passed, we had this type of thing by the dozen from the mining pressure groups and industry experts:
Baker MacKenzie: "Nobody in their right mind  in this sector would say that royalties mustn't be paid. But the way that this is is being proposed is devastating."
After the 7.5% (+0.5% extra on precious metals) royalty law was passed, the companies who actually do the mining and pay the taxes speak:
Agnico Eagle: "Despite the new tax regimen, we consider Mexico as a mature place to do business and we'd like to increase our activity (there). We don't consider the new taxes as a big problem."
Funny that, innit?


Chile: Bachelet edging towards a first round win

The vote's this weekend and here's a chart from the excellent Chilean polltracker site, tresquintos (a kind of Chilean version of Nate Silver's 538dotcom):



What we see is that after tresquintos has crunched the latest polling data and added it to previous surveys of voter intention, Michelle Bachelet is now edging close to the potential outright win in round one (she needs 50%+1 vote to do that). The sitting government's candidate, Evelyn Matthei, is in clear second and would go through to any eventual second round run-off if 'Chelle can't make it over the line.

There's no better place to watch the election unfold than tresquintos, either. Stick it on your RSS.

First Majestic (FR.to) (AG) files 3q13

Here's the NR link, here's a chart:


Revenues were strong at $76.882m, mine operating earnings also bounced back from the 2q13 lull, booked at $29.177m. Net earnings were $16.32m, which is an EPS of 14c, which is a penny off the 15c consensus but is still a decent number. Guidance is for lower costs going forward. As for the Mexico tax talk, FR.to has gone with the "Hey, let's talk about it in 2014" strategy.

Overall verdict here: In line. However, you shouldn't underestimate the basic fact that FR.to is a profitable silver miner, because there aren't so many who can say that these days.


Footy news

Two things:

1) The 10 nominations for FIFA's goal of the year 2013 are on this video:



For me there are some clear candidate goals missing from the list (just for starters, anyone remember Messi's vs Atletico Bilbao?) but it's still a good list and it's pleasant to see women's football featured (the overhead kick goal is quality). But Zlatan will win this year, if only for the "oh my lord how did he even think of that let alone attempt it let alone execute it" effect. Anyway, it's a fun four minutes of video for footy buffs. I like the Kone one as well, but it's tough to pick just one or two. 

2) In the UK right now there's a big journalists phone hacking trial, which is throwing out cute little vignettes about the country's assorted glitterati. For example, this tweet a few minutes ago from a reporter covering the trial:



You need to know Stella Artois role in British popular culture and also Wayne Rooney's background and reputation to fully appreciate this one. But it's wonderful, in that couldn't make it up way.

Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Sandspring (SSP.v) do a deal

You can read it here, I have two observations:

1) When your company is worth over $7.5Bn you can afford to risk $13.5m on what's nothing more than a call option at this stage.

2) That SSP feas study is going to be a good one.

UPDATE: And now IAMGOLD (IMG.to) (IAG) does a deal with TomaGold (LOT.v). And again, it's nothing of a pure buyout, it's more one that allows the patient to remain hooked up to the life support machine and left breathing in exchange for half their worldly goods'n'chattel. The big boys have started their asset bargain hunt.


11/11/13

Great Panther Silver (GPL) (GPR.to): It took three months

Back in IKN224 dated August 18th, your author ran out a list of potential short plays in the junior mining sector (which may be easy to spot in theory, but for this list we limited ourselves to US-listed stocks as they're much easier for us retail grunts to short in practice). Top of the shop of the nine potentials mentioned was Great Big Pussy Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL) and here's what was written:
Great Panther (GPL): Its 2q13 results (18) were nothing short of horrid and even if it slashes its costs as it says it’ll do in the next quarters, the $3.8m net loss on mine operations and $5.1m (4c/share) net loss (at average sales price of $21.58/oz Ag) point to a company that will make another loss in 3q13 unless silver springs really hard. How on earth this has managed to rally, from 82c on results day to the U$1.18 close of last Friday, even with the silver pop, is beyond my ken. Downside target here is 75c (i.e. 1.0X BV), or 36%.
Friday saw the US listing close at 75c, today the Canadian listing closed at CAD$0.75 (and the US ticker 72c) there. It took a little less than three months. 

And while I'm here, a serious question because I honestly don't know: Are there any other junior mining sector newsletters offering short side ideas? Because if not there damned well should be.

Copper Mountain (CUM.to) runs a $30m bought deal

I'm sorry, what was that you just said? You're telling me that Copper Mountain (CUM.to), a miner that's been producing at the great big fat deposit it has up there in BC since July 2011, is running a $30m bought deal financing? And for what reason?
"Copper Mountain plans to use the net proceeds of this financing for the construction of a secondary crusher to increase production at the Copper Mountain Mine site and for general corporate purposes."

"General corporate purposes"*. Well, clearly there's no credibility problem at that company.


And the people running juniors wonder why the investment community has turned their collective backs on them. Incredible.

*he repeats, trying hard to keep to his promise of not swearing on the blog this week

You read this and the first thought is, "Short copper, dude"

And then you read it again, have your morning coffee, and think, "No, better to short all base metals and their producers. Teck, Freeport, BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale...these suckers are going down."

This is the article. It's very interesting.

Chart of the day is...

...the US Dollar Index (USD), dailies:


If you ask me*, that sure looks similar to the early September set-up.


*What? You didn't ask me and I'm imposing my unsolicited and half-baked view onto you and that's a problem? Oh, my apologies.

11/10/13

Public opinion on mining in Jalapa, Guatemala, Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) edition

On October 19th, Andrés Dávila, spokesperson for Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) in the Jalapa region of Guatemala, repeated once again to the Guatemala media (who reported the words faithfully, as always, that opposition to the company presence in the locality was small and that "it was outside groups that have caused the conflict"

Today the Jalapa region held an officially sanctioned referendum on mining in the region. The results of the vote, open to all citizens on the electoral register and overseen by government officials, were as follows

Total number of voters: 24,552
Annuled votes: 873
Spoiled ballots: 128
Yes to mining in the region: 399
No to mining in the region: 23,152

nuff said. Or put another way...


The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN236 has just been sent to subscribers. Just sayin'.

Al Jazeera report on the Philippine typhoon

A three minute report that you need to see.

Lest we forget



We remember.

How's Lobito doing in 2013?

We report, you decide.




It's not that Louis Lobito Little Wolf James is losing money for his readers, after all it's been a tough year for juniors. It's how he's so full of his own wonderfulness and refuses to admit it. For example, I bet you hear more about Dynacor than you do Balmoral from him. Any takers for that bet?