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11/8/14

George Orwell Reviews Mein Kampf (1940)

Go looking for one thing and end up reading another thing; I can't tell you how many times it happens to me during the Saturday collation periods for the Weekly, but this time I found this and it's one of those "must share" things. Go read it here, Orwell nails this review on so many levels.

It was 20 years ago today, Sgt Pepper taught the band to play

Regular readers will know how much we love Tom Tomorrow and This Modern World here at IKN, so we point you to his wondrous website once again (xmas gifts galore!) which highlighted this from 1994:


Slice of weekend OT complete.

11/7/14

The 43 Mexican students

Holy mother of God. Here's an extract from the Beeb report. Some Spanish language reports i've seen this evening are more detailed and...well, perhaps it's best if there aren't so many details...

Mr Murillo showed videotaped confessions by the suspects who said they had loaded the students into dumper trucks and taken them to a landfill site in Cocula, a city near Iguala.
About 15 of the students were already dead when they arrived and the rest were shot, according to the suspects.
Mr Murillo said the bodies were then burned with petrol, tyres, firewood and plastic in an inferno that lasted for 14 hours.
"The fire lasted from midnight to 2pm the next day. The criminals could not handle the bodies (for three hours) due to the heat," he said.
He said that the suspects then crushed the remains, stuffed them into bags and tossed them in a river.
The suspects said they were not sure how many students they had taken but one said there were more than 40, Mr Murillo said. continues here


...because that's more than enough detail, methinks. And now here's a message for the investor relations people who represent junior mining companies working Guerrero Mexico: You try and tell the world that everything's normal there and I'll personally turn up at your office and break your nose with my clenched fist. You lying fuckers.

PS: Yes reader SP i do mean you, you ingratiating fucktard.

McEwen Mining (MUX) files its 3q14 financials post-close Friday evening

On both SEC and SEDAR. And once you look at them you'll understand why Robbie Mac didn't want very much attention brought to the numbers, for just one example...



Oh dear. Link to all the fun, right here.

Chuck Jeannes of Goldcorp (GG): He's good, oh yeah he's good

A few minutes ago, GG bowed to the inevitable and announced the withdrawal of its El Morro (GG 70%, NGD 30%) environmental impact study, due to the way it was chewed up and spat out by the Chilean Supreme Court a month ago. But here's what GG CEO Chucky Chuck Chuckles Chunky Charles Jeannes said about the move:
"While we were disappointed with the final Chilean court ruling, it has afforded us a unique opportunity to challenge our previous assumptions within the context of evolving industry dynamics." 

You get that? Go on, read it again, it's fun. No doubt in my mind that he was born to be a mining CEO.

The Friday OT: The six JS Bach cellos suites, played by Yo Yo Ma

So what happens with this youtube is you go, "Two hours? Jeesh, that way too much music" and then you kinda go, "Ok, maybe just for a while" and then you hit play and the first movement of cello suite one kicks in and you go, "Oh I love this!" and you listen and then...darnit, hooked again.


So if you think you're only going to listen for a few minutes, be prepared for deity-like music in your ears for the next two hours.

Chart of the day is...

...copper, hourlies:

This Jerbs Repert move is more interesting than the one in gold.

Gold Resource Corp (GORO) 3q14 results

Right here.  My fave bit...

"...if the Company had not stockpiled the 5,878 gold equivalent ounces of the high-grade gold and silver concentrates in its inventory, in preparation for processing in the new Aguila Mill Doré facility, the outcome would have resulted in net income instead of a net loss per share for the three months ended September, 30, 2014."
...which was more than wonderful. OTOH if they'd paid all the tax they owed it would have been a whole lot worse...but hey, details. And on that subject (and the heavy sag in the price of silver, and the YE bonuses mgmt is bound to pay itself, and this, and that) if you think this 3q14 is bad just wait for 4q14.

No Ebola

Designed for a wider audience, this map created by one Anthony England and doing the rounds on the Twittermachine is also useful for IKN's readership.




Did you sell some mining stock in Namibia/Mali/Tanzania/Burkina Faso/Nigeria/DRC/etc because of ebola? Did somebody tell you to sell because of ebola in that country? Do you feel stupid yet? Are you going to take their advice again?

11/6/14

Jemi Fibre (JFI.v): Bobby Genovese's latest scam upsets the locals

IKN's coverage of the scumball stock pumper/dumper Bobby Genovese continues today with news of Jemi Fibre (JFI.v), his latest scam that's based around the lumber industry. Yesterday JFI.v emitted this news release that has really got under the skin of locals where JFI is operating (or better said, trying to operate, see below for more) because the difference between the airbrushed spin in the NR and the cold hard reality of how this scam works was just too much for the law-abiding people that now have JFI hanging round and stinking up the neighbourhood. 

Which means, yes indeed, IKN has received a mail from an insider and you're about to read it, so you too will be able to see the difference between JFI's corporate BS and the nasty way in which it's going about business. It goes without saying that the person's identity will remain anonymous, as aside from the usual reasons JFI and its band of scumballs has already shown itself to be very quick on the SLAPP suits. We want you to read the real deal info, which means people's names have to be kept out of it. 

So without further ado, here's another episode in "avoid Bobby G stocks like the plague" starting with the excerpt in yesterday's NR which so annoyed the people that really know how JFI operates.
"As of this week, our WoodEx sawmill is now operating on a full one-shift basis. Since this past August, our Kootenay Wood preserving operations has been operating near a 1.5 shift basis. In addition, harvesting operations from our private timberlands has been progressing since late July. As of this month, we are operating at a steady-state on these lands and have commenced silviculture operations with an order of 1.2 million new seedlings."
And now the real juice on why that above is just a big crock. Our anonymous insider takes over from here and it's very interesting stuff). Read on.


The Real Story, by A.N. Other
WoodEx is a very small sawmill, Kootenay Wood is a small operation only set up to do fence poles or similar products. Both were close to bankruptcy when they were recently acquired by JFI in exchange for JFI penny stock. Neither mill can handle the production that JFI needs to accommodate the recent approximately $40 m purchase of private forest lands from Tembec. Also, word is they substantially overpaid for the Tembec land and many locals are wondering how they can ever be profitable after obtaining its capital via 100% financial debt at high interest rates of up to 22%. The debt deals were with BG Capital (i.e. Bobby Genovese, who also holds a significant equity investment in JFI).

We’ve done rough calculations and believe they need to clear cut near to 24 hours a day and find an outlet to sell the logs and at a high pace in order to make the business viable. One important thing to understand is clearcutting, why it’s important and why JFI needs to use this technique. Why is clearcutting with no silviculture (re-planting of trees) so desirable? Here is an excerpt from an article that explains.

“Logging private land is cheaper than logging Crown Land that's under the provincial Forest Practices Act. The act requires a comprehensive logging plan - something that can take months and add about $5 a cubic metre to the cost of wood harvested. There are restrictions on how much of the land can be logged at one time. The size of an allowable cut block varies from site to site. On private land, reforestation isn't required. Unless property is in the Forest Land Reserve, the logger doesn't pay stumpage. The cost of logging with plans, reforestation and stumpage would eat up half to two-thirds of the $50 to $200 (JFI) is getting per tree”.

We understand that JFI has approached the three private mills in the Kootenays that are close to recently acquired (ex-Tembec) timberlands and made offers, but nobody wants to sell. These include Galloway Lumber, J. H. Huscroft Lumber and WynnWood. They even tried a hostile takeover of WynnWood using one of WynnWood’s minority shareholders, but none of the other shareholders agreed and the deal fell through. So although it appears none of these local mills are for sale the question is whether JFI will get desperate (it needs a bigger mill, period) and offer a big price plus penny stock to cause the owners to re-consider.

There are three more mills in the area owned by public listed company Canfor (CFP.to). We don’t know if JFI has tried to purchase the Canfor mills but we do know that JFI has been selling logs to Canfor. Canfor is certified by the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) which means it can’t buy logs from an outfit that doesn’t practice sustainable silviculture (replanting of trees) or they will place their FSC certification in jeopardy.

To sum up so far, in order to be profitable, JFI needs clear-cut and not re-plant trees. Its lands purchased from Tembec are Managed Forest and they’re not allowed to clear cut. Therefore to move forward it has the following options

  • It must remove the government classification of Managed Forest (which requires replanting) on their lands. This they’ve reportedly tried to do with no success.
  • If they can’t do that, they can purchase mills that are not FSC certified and as you read above, they’ve had no luck so far.
  • If they can’t do that, they can have the mills they sell logs to remove their FSC certification. We strongly believe that Canfor will not remove its FSC certification.
  • Galloway is not FSC certified. WynnWood and JHH have a similar certification called SFI (Sustainable Forestry Initiative) and would not remove their certification under their present ownership.
In other words, JFI is stuck. So instead of playing it straight, they decided to play dirty. The Nature Conservancy of Canada met with JFI to make sure they’d follow the rules and were told by JFI that they would indeed follow the correct environmental practices of sustainability. So the NCC was hopping mad when just a few days later they found out that JFI had already cut down trees in a covenant area they weren’t supposed to touch. The NCC put the word out and Canfor refused to buy any more logs until they get with the program, which is why JFI announced yesterday the order of 1.2m seedlings. In other words, it’s not that they are “nice guys” and voluntarily commenced silviculture as suggested by the news release. Far from it; they were logging illegally, they got caught, their buyer stopped buying and from now on they’re going to be monitored very closely by the big national agency they annoyed; they really picked the wrong enemy there. So they had no choice but to start the silviculture program, and that’s going to cost them way too much money for the business model.

In JFIs official management discussions posted on Sedar, their plans are to acquire sawmills, so we believe they will keep trying. The local sawmills should be aware that some of the players of JFI have been also known to use middle men to purchase land in the past so those mills should do their due diligence if they decide to sell. Mike Jenks and 4064 Investments use middle man to purchase 1/3 of Denman Island. So sawmills be aware. Every company Bobby Genovese has been involved with has suffered a bad fate so if you care about your people, the jobs, environment and your reputation you will not sell at any price.



The European Parliament, winning friends and influencing people in South America

You would have thought that a...no...just no...



From here. Freekin dumbasses

Sad news from the South American silver mining world

Word reaches IKN that the world famous San Tomé silver mine in Costaguana has been put on care and maintenance. The privately run mine owned by the Gould family has been considered for decades as one of the richest silver deposits in South America but even this operation has now succumbed to the pressures of low metals prices and rising cash costs. 

Though a grim testament to the state of silver mining at this present time, the mine is expected to re-open for business once silver prices recover.

Chile country copper production breakdown by company

Chile's nice Cochilco people today published the production numbers for the country's copper sector to September 2014. Overall production has risen by 0.4% in the first three quarters of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013, but I thought I'd take a look at the breakdown of production by mine to see who's winning and who's losing. Charts, please!


The BHP-run La Escondida is still the world's single biggest copper mine and dominates the scene in Chile, though we note a slight reduction in YoY production. Then comes the Codelco "Chuquicamata/Radomiro Tomic/Ministro Hales" division (I've sliced Codelco into its several divisions, you'll note), then the four 100kt/qtr mines (Collahausi, Anglo, Teniente, Pelambres). For the record, when you add in the "other" (i.e. the small mines) the country total for copper production in the first nine months of 2014 comes to 4.2547 million tonnes.

This second chart shows the YoY percentage changes for individual mine production, to give you a clearer idea of the current winners and loser (less regard for absolute levels of production tonnages).


Chile's fastest growing producer is Collahuasi, up 18.0% YoY. Spence (+13.8%) doing well too, but you'll note just five others are growing and a full eleven mines are seeing production levels drop (or 12 if you include "other").

First Majestic Silver (AG) (FR.to): Buy, add, hold or sell

Several weeks ago I bought First Majestic Silver (AG) (FR.to) shares, with the idea being to have it as my risk exposure to silver. Of course when you buy you think you're buying at the right time and getting value for money, but as the price chart will tell you at the slightest glance...


...that was indeed my horrible mistake. So that was then, this is now and rather than lament the past it's high time to deal with the future. Is this a totally broken company with debt that will drag it down to nothing (like Allied Nevada, for example) or is this a case of a market being overly pessimistic on a quality operator that should bounce back and deliver a big gain once the silver price waterfall is done? That's the question on my mind today, therefore this weekend's edition of The IKN Weekly will have FR.to as its main focus and try to decide whether I should a) add some and average down, b) hang tough and hold through this period of übernasty c) sell and be done with a painful loser.

Primero (PPP) (P.to) swallows a toad

"Swallow a toad" is one of the nicer Spanish expressions out there, it's for when you do something you don't want to do. In the case of Primero Mining (PPP) (P.to) and its 3q14 financials just released, you have to open the NR...then get through the spin-merchant highlights....then scroll down...then scroll some more...then get past the CC announcement...then the standard issue cautionary statements...then a bit more...ah here come the numbers...and...


...ah, there it is! 

Because Primero insisted on buying Brigus, y'see. 

Pro Tip: Do not leave your government issued national identity card behind when attacking places and stealing things


Thief of Tailor's Shop Takes 25,000 Soles but Leaves His National Identity Card Behind.

Owner of the shop identifies one of the three theieves who attacked them in Comes. Police are now hunting for him

A group of thieves that robbed a tailors in the Comas district (of Lima, Peru) had thought of everything, except for leaving an ID card which will allow them to be identified. This the case of Edgar Miguel Alvarado Ruiz, one of the thieves who left his National Identity Card (DNI) in the ship when he attacked it, along with two others.

The owner of the tailer's shop, Mariano Julca Vera, said that the thieves tied them up with cord and the neckties on which they had been working. However, after the theives had fled with more than 20,000 Soles (U$ 6,825) worth of clothes and 4,000 Soles (U$1,365) in cash, Julca found a satchel they'd left behind.

"This is one of those that assaulted me, he's part of the team because there were three of them", he told América Noticias (TV news program). With the help of the ID card, Julca identified Alvarado Ruiz and now the police are searching for him.


11/5/14

A few facts about IAMGOLD (IAG) (IMG.to) and Rio Alto Mining (RIO.to) (RIOM)


  • On May 8th 2008, IAMGOLD (IMG.to) (IAG) sold the La Arena gold property in La Libertad to a new start-up mining company created specifically for the deal.
  • Its name, Rio Alto Mining Ltd (RIO.to) (RIOM).
  • RIO.to paid IMG.to $47.6m plus 5.5% of the new company in shares*
  • At the time of the deal, IMG.to had a market cap of $1.84Bn.
  • At tonight's close, RIO.to has a market cap of $733.23m
  • At tonight's close, IMG.to has a market cap of $659.57m
  • Steve Letwin is still CEO of IAMGOLD.


All prices in Canadian Dollars.

*IMG sold those shares years ago

Comparing GDP growth in Chile and Peru

With the news today that GDP growth in Chile for September 2014 came in at a disappointing +1.4%, your author was mentally nudged and finally got round to publishing a chart that's been on his mind for a while. This compares the monthly GDP growth numbers posted by Peru and Chile since 2010:


You'd never guess just by looking at that chart they're both in the same part of the world, both dependent on metals exports (Peru main export copper, Chile main export by a long long way copper) and both use box standard neolib fiscal and monetary policies, would you? So we'll leave the stupidities of blaming/praising party politics to the dumbasses at The Economist for every click up or down, as anyone with half a brain can spot how unconnected the latest call on social spending is to GDP results.

We'll get the September 2014 Peru GDP in a few days' time. Put me down for +2.4%


And word of the day is...

                                          *
...BOHICA

Therefore the plan is as follows: Take my book, go down to a nice little coffee shop, hang out for a couple of hours, completely forget about the wondeful world of capital markets for three or four hours.. And if it just so happens that there's an unexpected reversal while I'm away and the whole mining complex goes up, I might just do the same tomorrow. However that's unlikely, so I'll be getting on with some real work as of this afternoon. Enjoy your morning.


*Bend Over Here It Comes Again

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio, once again:


Sometimes you're right for the wrong reasons
Sometimes you're wrong for the right reasons.
This time I was just plain wrong, why doesn't matter.

11/4/14

Fortunately, nobody was told that Allied Nevada's (ANV) 3q14 numbers today would be a disaster and was given the chance to trade on illegal inside information

Not a rigged market, that Canadian market. Not at all. Oh no.

Tuesday tunes: Kate Bush: A sky of honey

The whole of disc two of Aerial:



There are passages of music here that defy words, I catch myself holding my breath and forgetting everything. So if you've never listened to this before, make it today. To quote Kate, 'It's just great'. Dedicated to Sadia Twotimes.

Nevada Copper (NCU.to): Compare and contrast

In its NR today, Nevada Copper stated the following:


For what it's worth, on October 6th the company also stated for the record in correspondence with Brent Cook and Tim Oliver, of Exploration Insights (the best junior mining newsletter there is, bar none) that the shaft was at a depth 1,332 feet. Mathematical calculation time:

October 6th to November 3rd* = 28 days
1,475 feet minus 1,332 feet = 143 feet
143 divided by 28 = 5.1 feet per day 

Just so you understand how a bullshit merchant company spins its words.


*we'll assume the NR is based on yesterday's final numbers, which allows leeway to the company

Chart of the day is...

...the US Dollar, monthlies:


The centre of the universe.

Barrick (ABX) and Zijin: Peter Koven of The National Post picks up on the story

Right here, and he's kind enough to hat-tip this humble corner of cyberspace as the source.

Interview with Roque Benavides of Buenaventura (BVN)

On this link here. Once it gets past the opening puffball questions there's decent content here. I'm no fan of the guy, but I wholly agree with his take on Madre de Dios. Better control of the mercury market in Peru would complement his thoughts and add to an effective clampdown.

11/3/14

Honey Badger don't care (TUF.v)

Having trouble raising cash?


 No free money to fund a moose pasture BS scamjob?


Nobody coming forward to pay directors' salaries?





Honey Badger Don't Care, he don't give a shit


And for those who require the cultural reference...

Zijin Mining and Barrick (ABX) are in JV talks over Pascua Lama

According to a weekend radio inteview with Felipe Saavedra, mining minster for the San Juan province of Argentina (where the 'Lama' part of Pascua Lama is located), the Chinese mining company that wants to JV with Barrick (ABX) on the troubled project is Zijin Mining. Here's the interview in San Juan daily Diario de Cuyo, but you need to listen to the audio for the full Q&A. Here's one of the most interesting bits transcribed and translated:
Radio: Do you know anything about the interest that China has to participate in Pascua Lama? 
Saavedra: In China I met with companies from that country and they told me they were interested in investing in Argentina and particularly in San Juan. One of the projects they told me they were interested in is Pascua Lama. We can be sure that in the months to come we're going to have visits from those companies. 
Radio: That would be to associate with Pascua Lama? 
Saavedra: They confirmed to me that they were in talks with Barrick. It's the Zijin Mining company. It would be to come in as an investor, this was confirmed to me by the CEO of the company. Also, they've already visited the project on several occasions.

You read it here first, people. Again.

I have no idea why The USA is so keen on signing Free Trade Agreements (FTA) with other countries

Not a clue.


Data from here.

Heads they win, tails you lose

Junior mining company investors should take a good hard stare at this chart:



Duluth Metals (DM.to) went into a JV agreement with Antofagasta (ANTO.L) in January 2010, worked the JV for years, then the market went against the juniors and things sagged. Even more so when ANTO.L decided not to pick up on its option in mid 2014, when DM.to shares went into freefall.

Thing is, turns out that ANTO.L wasn't suddenly out of love with the Twin Falls JV property, it just wanted to get its hands on 100% of the thing without having to pay much. Which brings us to today's news, ANTO buying out DM.to for a song.

They told you capitalism was fair, didn't they? They told you the little guys can beat the big guys, didn't they?

11/2/14

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN286 has just been sent to subscribers. Love that Sharp computer advert. From October 1990.

Ex-President Martinelli of Panama and Petaquilla Minerals (PTQ.to): The accusations rise again

You may remember back in 2012 when then-President Martinelli of Panama was accused of playing pump'n'dump with the shares of Petaquilla Minerals (PTQ.to), the notorious scam gold company run by the utter scumbag Fifer. Well this week the person who Martinelli threw in jail to shut her up fianlly got to give her deposition to a courtroom (yeah, seriously, the ex-Pres kept her in jail for a year and a half) and she proceeded to give chapter and verse on how the share price rigging and scam run by Martinelli and PTq worked. Read all about it, right here.