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The GOP convention this month could be more interesting than most editions.
UPDATE: However, some things never change. Germany win a penalty shoot-out (they haven't lost one since 1976).
I fell asleep to this song last night, slept soundly and dreamed of beauty. Now it's your turn.
The Simon Ridgway empire, that is. Just so you know.
Don't mess with the best, the best don't mess.
PS: Galantas Gold (GAL.v) is 20% down since Brexit, too.
1) Kaip won't get into trouble for this because he basically called the stock higher and it went higher. Anal ysts face flak on those rare occasions they're daft/brave enough to call sell on a stock, not buy (or that ultimate get-out phrase, "market perform" linked to a tepid upside percentage call).2) But it's not a "market perform" at all, it's obviously a "market outperform". He's done his readers a disservice by not getting them into a stock that moved 13.9% in the space of one day.3) This can only mean that Kaip hasn't read SAND correctly. There's something very wrong with his basic assumptions and, as a public service, IKN invites said anal yst to consider just why he's got the call on this stock so obviously wrong. He may become better at his job from such a period of necessary introspection.
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. ("Sandstorm" or the "Company") (NYSE MKT:SAND)(TSX:SSL) has entered into an agreement with a syndicate of underwriters co-led by National Bank Financial Inc. and BMO Capital Markets (the "Underwriters") pursuant to which they have agreed to purchase, on a bought deal basis, 11,236,000 common shares of Sandstorm (the "Common Shares") at a price of US$4.45 per Common Share, for aggregate continues here.
"The bottom line, after having done some real investigation into the subject rather than guesstimating, I’m still left with having to make some educated guesses but we can say that the 29% effective rate over LOM mentioned by CEO Hochstein may turn out to be somewhat optimistic, but it's not going to be far out. If I had to bet (and I don’t) I’d be careful about making too many offset assumptions about the profit sharing to corporate tax, then not assume that IVA rebates will be in the post quickly, but there’s every reason to believe LUG in Ecuador will have an effective tax rate in the low 30s %. That’s pretty competitive to peer countries and if Ecuador can offer the stability and long-term miner-friendliness that President Correa espouses, they’ll be fine.
However, it doesn’t take away from the fact that even with this lower rate of tax in real terms, LUG.to at FDN has just offered up to the market a project with economics that don’t sparkle. And this after Ecuador reportedly made plenty of concessions to LUG during negotiations and is taking a much softer stance towards FDI projects such as this, which underscores just why Kinross decided to walk away in its time at FDN when Correa was playing hardball.
When I ran the numbers earlier this year in the NOBS report of IKN357 dated March 13th, I couldn’t help but come to the conclusion that under the circumstances, with a key Feas Study in the works and then the hunt for capital to build its mine afterwards, LUG.to shares looked expensive for what they were. Since then we’ve seen gold jump, the bull market for mining companies take off, LUG got a positive price jolt when Porter Stansberry pumped the stock to his big list of investors and now the FS is here. Next we have the capex raise which, if you believe the press will start at U$820m, may be a lot higher (16) and come in two phases, first U$120m to U$140m round of equity, then at U$700m commercial (probably debt) facility. That’s a lot of raise for a U$445m market cap company to support and the way in which the FS assumed a 5% discount rate isn’t helping the optics of the raise and its real burden on the project. What we do know for sure is that LUG is currently running on fumes and will HAVE to raise its cash soon, because for one thing it’s part of the terms of agreement with the government of Ecuador and for another, they’ve just taken out a $5m bridge loan with main sponsors the Lundins to tide treasury over. And $5m isn’t going to last very long here.
This weekend’s CAD$5.62 share price for 101.3m shares (and that new small bridge loan) still looks expensive, sorry and all that, it’s not for us smallfry retailers until we know how much the bigboy financiers are going to extract for their kind patronage. I expect the share price to continue weakening and $5.25, even under $5, looks in the cards. End."
What is The EU?
Where is Iceland?
How to play football.
A segment from IKN372, out last night:
Dalradian (DNA.to) and BrexitFallout from the UK’s decision to vote Leave last week will come in all shapes and sizes. In the great scheme of things what follows here is a tinysmall consequence compared to the massive issues now on the table such as EU membership, the new political leaders of parties in the UK, et cetera and so forth. But it is our focus subject and we’re also talking about a company we’ve covered on these pages as well as traded (with reasonable success too), Dalradian Resources (DNA.to). Though small, this is a practical consequence of the Brexit vote and our field of interest, so here goes.It's way too early to be dramatic about the future of Northern Ireland and the ramifications from the Brexit vote result are only starting to show. Therefore I am not talking about clear negatives such as a return to hard borders between North and South, the vote for a reunification of Ireland (though Sinn Fein will push that agenda as from tomorrow in the Irish parliament, it's the party's basic raison d'etre after all), a split from the UK nor even more stressful things such as troops on the ground to quell any resumption of sectarianism (the Catholic/Protestant issues of the country aren't counted in decades but in centuries, yes things are much better now but multi-generational conflicts can be tough to extinguish completely).I am not considering any of the potential bad cases, for Northern Ireland in general or Dalradian specifically as they are too far in the future to consider seriously for a junior mining company investment. However we must be clear, what this does do is add a significant amount of political uncertainly to business investment in Northern Ireland and that includes DNA. In our focus company's case it's worse, as right now DNA is on the permitting track and in the period when it wants political and authority certainty, from which it goes to market to raise capital (or sells to the highest bidder). Who will be governing the land in two years' time? In five? That's the timescale a mining project such as Curraghinalt needs. What will the laws be? Will previously awarded permits be recognized? Will local grievances become louder? What will the exchange rate be for the pay of workers at the mine? How much tax will the company pay? A hundred other unknowns have suddenly shown their head above the parapet. The Curraghinalt deposit and project is one thing, but its political situation has suddenly taken a turn for the worse. The IKN Weekly's recommendation is to avoid exposure to Dalradian Resources (DNA.to) until such time as the political future of Northern Ireland is better understood. Yes, that means sell if you still own shares and as a post-script, that call goes for other Northern Ireland exposed companies such as Galantas Gold (GAL.v). Even in a best case situation DNA (and GAL and others) aren’t going to benefit as much from the safe haven interest in gold as other juniors, transferring any cash from these to other similar stocks working other countries is a simple and practical call.
And well done Chile.
Another BOHICA* moment for the GBP coming your way.
*bend over here it comes again