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9/17/16

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Want some scurrilous gossip about mining journalism? Well surprise surprise...". Passing on inside intel about the decadence of The Gold Report, once occasionally readable but now an empty shell.


Second Place: "Mouthbreather update". This was a follow-up post to the number one most popular of the week below, which may give you an idea of how many hits the first one got.
 
First Place: "Continental Gold (CNL.to): Relative strength". IKN lets slip that fact that CNL has a CA running with MUX and all hell breaks loose. This week's most hit-upon single post by a nautical mile.

9/16/16

Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to): Shahuindo locals to go on strike

Ha! It took TAHO less than a year to screw up all the good work done by Rio Alto. As from next Tuesday locals around the Shahuindo mine are going in strike (i.e. roadblocks) because they're fed up with the company's briken promises and the community deals they signed but now refuse to honour.

Ferrari Kev strikes again.

The Friday OT: Grace Jones; Pull up to the bumper

The pomp and glory of Grace Jones. And she's not singing about driving a car, by the way.




Early 80s video techniques, harsh hair, killer beat and Jones's excellent under-rated singing voice.

Joe Mazumdar on Northern Miner podcast

This starts good, gets better and you really get a feel for how much Mazumdar knows about his topic. Here's the blurb that's on the page and introduces the half hour chat.

Western Editor Matthew Keevil sits down with Joe Mazumdar from Exploration Insights (www.explorationinsights.com/) for a wide-ranging discussion on the resource sector. Topics include the recent resource estimation troubles for Orezone Gold (TSXV: ORE; US-OTC: ORZCF) at the Bomboré gold project in Burkina Faso, West Africa. What's up with those resource estimates and 43-101 reports?
We talk Pretium Resources' (TSX: PVG; NYSE: PVG) Brucejack gold project in northwestern B.C. and Nevsun Resources' (TSX: NSU; NYSE-MKT: NSU) Bisha operation in Eritrea. What is the deal with zinc markets?


Highly recommended weekend fare and IKN's mancrush on Mazumdar continues.

9/15/16

A Flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers, Thursday afternoon a few minutes before the close. Buying something today, full details on Sunday in IKN384.

Pershimco (PRO.v) craters

Really interesting action in Pershimco (PRO.v) today, not often does your junior exploreco go into dumpage mode the day after it gets bought out:



IKN Nerve Centre is now receiving mails asking why this might be. IKN Nerve Centre also received mails the day after the September 7th post due to this line...

Disclosure: No position in Pershimco or Orla. Or Franco Nevada, for that matter.

...because people wanted to know why I wasn't long the stock, despite knowing it was about to get bought out. The reasons are probably related, in fact they're probably the same reason; Cerro Quema is a piece of shit. Not my fault that Pierre doesn't realize that yet. Pierre may have this "no lose" aura about him, but anyone who remembers how badly Dorato stank and how much cash FNV ploughed into that one will know that his big blind spot is community relations. Here we go again...

Mouthbreather update

Some moron called "Jazz Singer" wrote a comment on yesterday's post re. CNL and MUX, saying the following:
"Unless you can provide any proof besides your rumored Ari comment this post is baseless. There so many other company's McEwen Mining could buy for far less than the price Continental Gold. Rob McEwen would not be doing business with anyone who would leak information on a buyout deal."

I forgot how many stupid colloquial sexual organs (male or female, choose your preferred slang) there are in Teh Internetz. Yes of course you want written and lawyer-approved evidence of a CA between CNL and MUX because that's what you deserve, because your mother didn't breastfeed you, poor darling. Because IKN's track record of knowing things before you do just isn't good enough for your high standards. But trust me on this one my Jazzy friend, McEwen would indeed do business with a scumbag like Ari Sussman, he only wants the money. That's the attitude that wins you national medals in Canada.

I can't help but get a Teutonic feel from this Jazz Singer guy, that "Resistance Is Useless" thing. Could be me...hey, I dunno...

PS: I did like "company's" instead of "companies".


9/14/16

Orla and Pershimco (UPDATED)

What, you thought I was joking?

You heard it here first. Let's see now...

 July 12th: "Orla Mining (OLA.v) is looking at Pershimco Resources (PRO.v)"

August 12th: "Pershimco (PRO.v) now close to the Orla deal"

September 7th:  "Orla and Pershimco update", my personal fave.

And today September 14th, this from the company:

Vancouver and Rouyn-Noranda - September 14, 2016 - Orla Mining Ltd. ("Orla")(TSX-V:OLA) and Pershimco Resources Inc. ("Pershimco")(TSX-V:PRO; FSE: BIZ) today are pleased to announce that they have entered into a definitive arrangement agreement (the "Arrangement Agreement") to combine their respective businesses, creating a new, growth-oriented gold company in the Americas (the "Transaction"). The new company ("NewCo"), which will continue to operate under the name "Orla Mining Ltd.", will focus on continued exploration and development of Pershimco's Cerro Quema project located in Panama, and will seek further etc etc here

IKN Kung Fu is strong.

UPDATE: In general terms this deal values Pershimco as stands today at $113m, around $33m higher than  tonight's close. There may be some slippage on that come the open as it's an all-paper deal, but it puts PRO.v very close to the mooted 45c selling price IKN mentioned in August. Just so you know.

Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to): Edie Hofmeister in the Reno Gazette Journal today

Here's the photo of the dead wood version, courtesy of reader SM:


Good to hear Edie sticking up for the community relations of her company* at this difficult time for her professionally, what with her leaving Reno because she can't stand to be in the same room as Clayton. This might be connected to the way Clayton is about to hire a Community Relations Manager. The job will be based in Reno and will take a sizeable portion of her work away from her.

PS: And by the way, go behind the smooth corporate show and you too will be able to hear what IKN hears from Reno Head Office; that TAHO is absolutely crapping itself about the potential of losing Escobal due to "permitting irregularities" during the government of ex-President Otto Pérez Molina, now jailed for corruption.

*Though "thriving community supportive of the mine" is a bad case of over-egging the pudding

Continental Gold (CNL.to): Relative strength

It has not escaped your humble scribe's notice that his long position in Continental Gold (CNL.to) has been doing well recently, here shown next to the XAU (gold & silver index).


That's a 21% out-performance to the benchmark and that's pretty good. This may be because of the loose lips at CNL who have let it be known that McEwen Mining (MUX) has signed a confidentiality Agreement with CNL and is interested in buying it out once the environmental permits are issued. Mind you Ari, it's probably not good business to spread that type of news and piss Rob McEwen off, even doing it in the sneaky back channel way.

This Thing Isn't Like That Thing, Pan American Silver (PAAS) (PAA.to) edition

Yesterday we had news and view about Pan American Silver's (PAAS) (PAA.to) Navidad project in Chubut, Argentina. Ross Beaty (you've heard of him) met with Argentina's President Mauricio Macri during the country's "Forum of Investments And Negotiations" event yesterday in Buenos Aires, amusingly framed by the local press as a "Mini Davos". Anyway, here's what they reported in Argentina's largest circulation national daily newspaper, Clarín (bonus prize; the report has a pretty photo of Beaty and Macri sitting down together and talking important words). Please note that the bold-type words are the way in which Clarín presented the news, there's no IKN highlighting here:
"During the Forum of Investments And Negotiations, President Mauricio Macri had a marathon of meetings with CEOs participating in the event and heard several announcements regarding long awaited investments.

"One of the meetings was with the head of Pan American Silver, Ross Beaty, who announced an investment of U$1,000m for the development of a mega-project in Chubut, the Navidad mine, which will be the largest silver reserve in the world."

Here's what Pan American Silver said in its NR:
Current laws in Chubut, however, prohibit open pit mine development. As such, Pan American has made no investment or construction decision on the Navidad project.

Spot the difference?

The cruel reality: When it comes to Navidad, Macri makes for a nice photo and soundbite but he's a complete sideshow, a bit-part player. The real power is Mario Das Neves, who knows that very well. And Beaty does, too. You may want to join the knowledge club.

Chart of the day is...

...copper, hourlies:


The interesting bit isn't the first signs of a rebound away from the current levels this morning, it's the way copper tried to die overnight Monday in Asia trading and was immediately bought.

UPDATE: Spot copper now $2.14/lb. That's a pretty decent move.

9/13/16

The beautiful game

They don't always play as well as this, but when they do this Barcelona elevates Association Football to an art form.  Celtic are the unlucky ones on the end of this caning but frankly, it could be any team in the world and the same result.

Pick of the seven, this one from the boot of Maquina (aka Andrés Iniestra):


Daniel Ameduri jumps the shark

Word reaches these shores that the pumpmeister Daniel Ameduri is now promoting First Mining Finance (he gets $250,000 in cash plus a bunch of shares to do it) by telling his brain dead subscribers that Goldcorp (GG) is a likely buyer of the company. Yes, it's parrot time.


Seriously Daniel, you have to be on drugs. At least one more person has you marked down for the scamster clown that you are, Garofalo must be wetting himself laughing over you, you freakin' moron.

Want some scurrilous gossip about mining journalism? Well surprise surprise...

...you've come to the right place. Here's a mail received from A. Reader recently (for obvious reasons, not even the initials this time). I think we'll just go with it as stands (very slightly edited to protect both guilty and innocent alike). Note that I have no way of fact-checking the contents but it all passes the smell test with flying colours, so I say publish and be damned.

"...The Gold Report (TGR) is not what it was. It was never some shining light of mining journalism but it used to interview respectable analysts and even some respectable newsletter writers. Not anymore, just friends and family. This time last year there were 35 employees, now there are less than 10. Executive editor JT Long was let go in mid February. Former TGR publisher Jason Mallin was let go in late October. He's been replaced by Paul Guedes, formerly of the Grosso Group. Interviews, although always sponsor-friendly, are now exclusively with FOG (friends of Gordon Holmes). That's one reason why it's become The Michael Ballanger Report lately.

At its peak, TGR had almost 200 sponsors. It now has around 60 (but even that may be somewhat optimistic). Holmes is also working on some content by James West, who with the help of Post Media has resurrected the dubious Midas Letter. Holmes is fighting with his partner Karen Roche for control of Streetwise. He's basically low-balling her on a buyout offer. And the lease on its office space in Petaluma is up in July."


You know how desperately bad Seeking Alpha writers are...

...when they use IKN as their source material. A screenshot.



They even pick the pieces of script with my bad grammar. Why I left the "when" hanging in there is beyond me. Merci GMR pour le "tete-en-haut".

And on the subject of bad anal ysts, by the way Itinerant/Investment Doctor your Rainy River capex math sucks. A quote, with your humble scribe highlighting the dumbass bits
"Liquidity may become a concern here: the company had $145M in cash at the end of August, and has $175M available on its revolving credit facility. Adding the final $75M stream deposit by Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) brings our liquidity tally up to $395M - or $85M short of currently stated capex requirements. The $50M overdraw option on the revolver won't save the day here, and we would be surprised if cash flow from New Gold's operating mines does. In other words: expect New Gold to raise capital before long."

Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong wrong. Lazy analysis is what makes Sinking Alpha what it is.

More copper news: Las Bambas has ramped up nicely

Here's a more interesting dataset from the July MEM numbers:


The big Las Bambas copper mine is now humming and produced 74.51Mlbs copper in July 2016. Annualize that and we're talking 895Mlbs, or 406,000 metric tonnes of copper per year. That's a lot of copper.

HudBay (HBM): One month of Constancia

Peru's mining ministry finally got round to publishing the July monthly production numbers for mines up and down Peru yesterday (they're around two weeks later than normal), but better late than never and they give an idea of how 3q16 is shaping up for a bunch of companies. For example HudBay at Constancia, which produced 27.38m lbs copper in the month. If we take a deep breath and extrapolate that month in a straight line for the rest of the quarter...

...it works out at an estimated 82.38m lbs Cu for 3q16. We'll get the real figure soon enough of course, but HBM Constancia looks in fair shape so far production-wise. The copper price is another story, of course.

PS: I love the way this humble corner of cyberspace gets multiple hits from Hill Knowlton Toronto every time the word "HudBay" gets a mention on the blog. Just because you're paranoid don't mean they're not after you, guys.

Chart of the day is...

...five years of moly prices:



What with the world's inventory of the stuff having "quietly fallen to zero". There's plenty of supply slack with mothballed roasters around the world.

9/12/16

There will be no more posts on the blog today

For secret reasons.

No point in being in midlife without having a crisis. Such a waste otherwise. See you tomorrow.

PS: Sing along with the chorus:



9/11/16

The IKN Weekly, now now

I do appreciate accuracy in road signs. 
That's 350.22 metres, by the way

 IKN383 has just been sent to subscribers. The main event this week is a close look at New Gold (NGD) (NGD.to) and whether there's a trade to be had now that it's cheaper. Lots more besides, of course.

911

We remember.