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10/28/17

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Hive and Oilprice: À la recherche du pump perdu". I did like the title line on this one, it must be admitted.

Second Place: "Anfield Trek and NewCastle is a three-way merger". IKN breaks the news four or five hours before it happens, the short post gets a stack of hits, the news comes out. A popular post. Normal.
 
First Place: "Lithium X (LIX.v) receives a mail". More to come on this story, too. A lot more. If you're still long this stock that's your right and privilege in a free society, but don't say you weren't warned.

10/27/17

The Friday OT: Joaquin Sabina; Lo Niego Todo

Here's the man.



Here's the youtube.


And here's his in concert last weekend.



Photo: Your author's Samsung. A brilliant gig.

Travelling man

I'll get round to posting something later, when all this aeroplane stuff is done. Talk amongst yourselves.

10/26/17

Crapstone Mining (CS.to): Remember that "zero cost collar" from late 2016?

The one we guffawed and laughed about in this post dated November 9th? Well so far that "zero cost" device put in place by Darren DropThe Pylot has cost the company eleven point eight eight six million United States Dollars. Including U$9.14m in the 3q17 numbers just out

Mediocrity, thy name is mining executive.

Nexa (ex-Votorantim Metais) IPOs tomorrow Friday

Led by JP Morgan. Price, U$16.

Catching up with Rick Rule and Amir Adnani's "Selling Snake Oil To Idiots" series

Back in mid-July, we covered the two part conversation between Amir Adnani (of GOLD.v and UEC) Rick Rule (of everywhere). They called part one "Leverage to Gold: Acquiring 'Ounces in the Ground" in which, what a shock, they thought GOLD.v was a great buy and part two "How To Play The Next Uranium Bull Market" in which, another shockah, UEC was plat du jour. As noted at the time, IKN's alternative titles were far more accurate. 

So, let's see how they got on with their blatant little pumpjob:

Here's GoldMining Inc (better known as TwatMining*) (GOLD.v) from then to now:
So, 17% down in three-and-a-bit months. I suppose if you liked at at $1.68 you gotta love it at $1.39, right? And here's Uranium Energy Corp (UEC), same period:

Oh, just the 35% down guys? Hey, here's hoping you thought about taking a few coins off the table during that...errr..."liquidity event" back then.



*We remind our esteemed readership of this edition of "Mining PRs and the Ottotrans", which included the following NR translation:
VANCOUVER , Dec. 5, 2016 /CNW/ - Brazil Resources Inc. (the "Company" or "Brazil Resources") (TSX-V: BRI; OTCQX: BRIZF) is pleased to announce that its board of directors has approved a change of its name to "TwatMining Inc.", effective December 6, 2016 , in order to better reflect its existing business. The Company also announces that it will concurrently complete a continuation (the "Continuation") under the Canada Business Corporations Act (the "CBCA").
Chairman of the Board, Amir Adnani , stated: "We are pleased to change the name of the Company to TwatMining Inc. to better reflect the type of person we wish to attract as a shareholder."
The Company's common shares are expected to commence trading on the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSX-V") under the new symbol "TWAT" and on the OTCQX International market (the "OTCQX") under the new symbol "TWTLF" on December 7, 2016 .  The Company expects that on the same date its listed warrants will commence trading on the TSX-V under the new symbol "TWAT.WTF" and on the OTCQX under the new symbol "TWTWTF". 

Thank you for your attention.

The Tier One earnings day sweepstakes

We got the 3q17 earnings from the big four goldies between post close yesterday and the open today, let us see how (in order of market cap size as of last night) Newmont (NEM), Barrick (ABX), Goldcorpse (GG) and Agnico (AEM) have got on compared to the Gold & Silver Index (XAU) today:

Heavy fail, Barrick (ABX):

ABX didn't deliver on the bottom line and on a negative day for miners like today, your stock is duly crushed no matter how much extra polish you've added to the balance sheet.

One thumb down, Newmont (NEM):

NEM gave us an in-line quarter, which isn't enough on a negative day for miners like today.


One thumb up, Goldcorpse (GG):
Decent production and better costs than I and many expected. Still it's only just above UNCH today after popping early doors, gold's drop has taken the shine off everything.

And the winner is Agnico (AEM):
An excellent quarter, a beat on just about every metric and a dividend bonus, too. The market darling delivers again and there's now less then $750m market cap difference between AEM and GG...gonna gitcha Garofalo.

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio:




Remember the period of mining sufferance we went through in 2013 and 2014? Prefer not to think about it too hard? Yeah well me too, but the point here is that the gold/copper ratio is back to where it was during the Death Of Everything period.

And as gold miners aren't doing too badly (without it being a full scale party of course, but the numbers out of AEM, GG and even NEM show there's profit being made), which can only mean it's heady and full bull in the copper space.

10/25/17

Lithium X (LIX.v) receives a mail

First LIX received this from the fund mentioned on Monday October 23rd, then IKN received it from some place inside LIX between then and today. Not from Bri-Bri mind you, but from one of the people he thinks is his friend. Read on, Mr. Duggan:

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Delbrook Capital Advisors Inc. (“Delbrook”), a shareholder of Lithium X Energy Corp. (“Lithium X” or the “Company”), is contacting the Board of Directors to register its concern and to request information related to the interests that the Company’s Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Brian Paes-Braga had in the Company (which was known at the time as Royce Resources Corp.) in the reacquisition transaction of the Company which was completed on November 26, 2015 (the ”Transaction”).

It is our understanding, based upon the public disclosure of the Company, that pursuant to the Transaction, the Company acquired all of the issued and outstanding securities of 1045564 B.C. Ltd. (“Privco”) in exchange for common shares of the Company. The Transaction was announced on October 2, 2015 and detailed in a filing statement on SEDAR dated November 20, 20151 (the “Filing Statement”). Delbrook further understands that Mr. Paes-Braga, a director, officer and majority shareholder of Privco, acquired 3,000,000 common shares of the Company in exchange for the shares of Privco he held, and became President, Chief Executive Officer and Director of the Company. Delbrook notes that the public disclosure indicates that Mr. Paes-Braga did not beneficially own, direct or control, directly or indirectly, any securities of the Company at the time of the transaction.

Delbrook has received information which alleges that Mr. Paes-Braga did in fact, contrary to the public disclosure, have an interest, direct or indirect, in the Company at the time of the Transaction and benefitted economically from the Transaction in a manner which was not disclosed to the public in accordance with applicable securities laws and TSX Venture Exchange (the “Exchange”) policies.

Accordingly, as a shareholder of the Company, Delbrook requests the Board of Directors confirm to it, and provides satisfactory evidence in respect of the same, that Mr. Brian Paes-Braga, together with his affiliates, associates or any other with whom he was acting jointly and in concert (as all such terms are defined under applicable Canadian securities law) (collectively the “Paes-Braga Group”) held no shares and had no economic interest, directly or otherwise, in the Company at any time prior to, or on completion of, the Transaction. Delbrook is requesting that the Board of Directors provide evidence of this by delivering a list of non-objecting beneficial owners (“NOBO”) of the Company prior to, at the time of, and following completion of the Transaction, including a copy of the NOBO list generated in connection with the Company’s annual and special meeting held on November 26, 2015. In addition, please provide us with a certified copy of the security registers of Privco immediately prior to the completion of the Transaction (together with the requested NOBO lists, the “Shareholder Information”).

Delbrook requests this information due to concerns that the Paes-Braga Group had an interest in the Company, which was not properly disclosed by Mr. Paes-Braga or the Company in connection with the Transaction. Clearly, this interest would be material information required to be disclosed publically under both applicable securities laws and the Exchange policies, including without limitation under Exchange Policy 5.9 and Multilateral Instrument 61-101 – Protection of Minority Shareholders in Special Transactions, National Instrument 51-102 – Continuous Disclosure Obligations, Part 5 of National Instrument 62-104 - Take-Over Bids and Issuer Bids, National Instrument 62-103 – The Early Warning System and Related Take-Over Bid and Insider Reporting Issues, National Instrument 55-104 – Insider Reporting Requirements and Exemptions, Exchange Policy 3.3 – Timely Disclosure and Exchange Policy 5.2- Changes in Business and Reverse Take-overs. Further, in the event that any such interest did exist and was not disclosed, the disclosure contained in the Filing Statement (which was certified by the directors and officers of both the Company and Privco as being full, true and plain disclosure of all material information) and in the Early Warning Press Release, Early Warning Report and SEDI report filed by Mr. Paes-Braga would contain material misrepresentations, which could result in serious consequences for the Company and Mr. Paes-Braga personally, pursuant to securities legislation.

In addition to our concerns set out above, the information received would further imply that the methods which may have been used by Mr. Paes-Braga to attempt to disguise his interest in the Company at the time of the Transaction, may also give rise to concerns related to the improper transfer and re-registration of securities and compliance of the same with applicable market integrity rules.

As a shareholder of the company, Delbrook is very concerned that the alleged activity of Mr. Paes-Braga, if proven to be true, poses a material risk to shareholders and believe the Board of Directors must take steps to address these concerns, including the provision of the information requested above and to the commencement of a fulsome and detailed investigation into these allegations.

Delbrook would note that since the Transaction the Company has filed annual audited financial statements2, an annual information form3, and a short form prospectus4. These documents were not only certified to contain full, true and plain disclosure by Mr. Paes-Braga, as Chief Executive Officer, but also by other directors and officers of the Company. In addition, Delbrook notes that on October 11, 2017 the Company has announced an additional capital raise via short form prospectus, which is scheduled to close on or about October 31, 2017. As the board will again be called to certify the accuracy and completeness of the information contained or incorporated by reference therein, Delbrook would expect that the Company will need to investigate these allegations as soon as possible, and in any event prior to the closing of this announced offering.

Delbrook thanks you in advance for your prompt attention to this matter, and asks that you please provide it with a written reply to this letter which addresses in adequate detail Delbrook’s concerns, and provide Delbrook with a copy of the Shareholder Lists not later than October 27, 2017.

Three cognitive biases that stop me from making more money (from IKN440)

This was the main intro piece from IKN440, out last Sunday evening. I have redacted the names of companies used as examples as they're for subscribers. The rest as-is:

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Three cognitive biases that stop me from making more money
What are your hang-ups as an investor? One thing is true without a doubt; we all have them. From there, most investors are aware of their weaknesses, the smarter ones work on them to get better at this crazy game. The individual investor (or even the fund manager, as long as they don’t work for Ray Dalio) tends to do this in the private sphere, it’s not easy to go around boasted about one’s weaknesses but what with being the author of a weekly publication that is based firmly and squarely on what I’m doing with my cash, coupled with my constant exhortations that “I am not you” and you should take the information provided here and use in for your own circumstances, I’m at the point where this subject has irritated me too long, it needs to be aired. Therefore today you get an overview of what I consider to be my main weaknesses as an investor (though as you’ll see, even though I consider one of them a sensu stricto weakness I’m not in any hurry to do anything about it). There are others of course (and if you feel like it, you’re very welcome to write in and tell me if you think I have other blind spots that have gone un-mentioned today), but for my taste and perspective there are three big ones and they go like this:

1) I am overly loyal to a story. In other words, I tend to hang around too long when a stock’s development isn’t going according to its original plan. The problem here is often on a personal, human level rather than statistical or (lack of) results-driven and starts with the way in which I prefer betting on companies with strong, stand-up management teams with integrity and values. Once in, my weakness is to consider my position as a sponsorship and a moral backing. So when things don’t go to plan (and in mining “when” is better than “if”, more depends on the size and gravity of the problem) I get a dose of loyalty. Maybe not such a bad thing, but the issues start with “overly loyal”, the header of this point. Sticking with a team is fine, being stubborn and backing good people that don’t deliver isn’t so great. The best example of this one in my open list at the moment is (redacted).

The solution, one I work on actively, is to be a bit harder-nosed about selling when the story as it unfolds fails to match (or sufficiently match) my own expectations when I made the original purchase. As evidence, the way I sold (redacted) before the drop kicked in has worked well.

2) I’m a sucker for a Value Trap. This one is well documented round these parts. The numberwonk in me filters through the sector, finds the stock that’s cheap “considering what it has” and buys it. The main problem is that even if it goes up with the market, it’s always going to be “comparatively cheap” to peers and my hang-up shines through, it’s tough to sell even at a profit. Value is one thing and I consider it a positive that I search and find such stocks. The issue is with “Trap”, the companies that don’t attract market attention or bids because they’re poorly marketed, they don’t develop their project as expected (see point one), they out-run retail holders by diluting benefit away using placements, those and a list of others. I’ve really been trying to work on this weakness of mine and on my list of open stocks today, perhaps two can be described that way (though I’d argue against), the potential culprits in order of likelihood being (redacted).

3) I find it difficult to buy a “bad” company. This subject grates on me for two reasons. A great example of this are the mid-sized copper producers such as (redacted) They’re so badly run, insular, shareholder unfriendly and spend half their time just on either side of the breakeven line that I find it painful to consider how they’re sold to people as quality mining vehicles. However, I’m also the first to recognize that they’re exactly the type of stock to own (maybe “trade” is a better word) when the underlying market for copper makes significant moves in either direction. It’s partially due to their high cash cost and partially due to the very fact they’re run by mediocrity that makes them great trades if there’s a big move in copper (either direction, going long is most accessible to us retail for Canadian listed stocks), but try as I might I just can’t get myself to go long. Education inhibits risk taking, or to quote Hamlet for the umpteenth time “Thus conscience does make cowards of us all” and backing a company that’s obviously badly run is tough for me, even when it becomes patently obvious that due to outside factors it’s going to give you upside leverage.

However…and this is important, I really don’t feel like working on this weakness of mine! Unlike points 1) and 2) above, even after recognizing this inhibition to greater stock market profits I actively prefer not to do much about it. For one thing, if I use my strengths as an investor there are still plenty of other vehicles to choose from that will provide me with a market win (e.g. identifying (redated)). For another, there really is more to life than simply making money for me, the Paul van Eeden “Better Sleep Principle” has a corollary here and I just cannot feel relaxed about my sponsorship of mediocrity just because I can ride their backs for a few shekels, I much prefer to back people who do the right things in the right way, with the ideal that eventually the way in which business gets done may improve somewhat. All flowery and pie in the sky stuff, perhaps, but I sleep better that way. Life isn’t all about money.

Bottom line: The idea is that with those three in mind you get a better peek into my mindset and reasoning behind the trades published here in The IKN Weekly. Another bow in the quiver when deciding how to use the information provides for your own circumstances.


A week of Excellon (EXN.to)

This time last Thursday, Excellon Resources (EXN.to) was a $2.19 stock. So with 76.3m shares out, its market cap was C$167.1m. Now, assuming (as we should) that the bought deal upsize and overallotment fills and closes in good order, the company has a de facto 84m shares out. So with its share price at $1.80 as I write these words, its market cap is C$151.2m. We can therefore state that the decision made by EXN to add $15m in cash to the company has cost it nearly $16m net in less than a week. Of course, not everybody is unhappy about this:
  • EXN management is happy, they get $15m in capital to play with.
  • Cantor and PI Fin are happy, they get the commish on the bot deal.
  • New shareholders coming in on the deal are happy, they get discounted shares and a half warrant to boot.
So, who loses out on this deal? Dear longer-term shareholder and supporter of EXN, go take a look in a nearby mirror. Pleasant to be treated this way, right?



Anfield Trek and NewCastle is a three-way merger

Christmas holidays come early for Panneton (geddit?). How do we know? As soon as Leduc appeared as interim CEO it was just one logical step for Bay/Howe St to connect the dots and word went round.

UPDATE 2pm local time: And sure enough, the IKN jungledrums strike again.

VANCOUVER, British Columbia, Oct. 25, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Trek Mining Inc. (TSX-V:TREK) (“Trek Mining”), NewCastle Gold Ltd. (TSX:NCA) (“NewCastle”) and Anfield Gold Corp. (TSX-V:ANF) (“Anfield”) are pleased to announce the signing of a definitive agreement (the “Agreement”) to combine their businesses (the “Transaction”). The combined entity intends to operate under the name Equinox Gold Corp. (“Equinox Gold”) and expects to trade on the TSX Venture Exchange (“TSX-V”) under the ticker symbol “EQX”. Led by Ross Beaty as Chairman, and the executive team led by Christian Milau as CEO and Greg Smith as President, Equinox Gold will be a well-financed gold mining company with a near-term strategy to become a profitable, multi-asset, low-cost gold producer. Shareholders of Trek Mining and NewCastle Gold will each own 44% of Equinox Gold, with Anfield Gold shareholders owning 12%.

10/24/17

Dear David Duggan

Have you seen the mail LIX received yesterday yet? Because if you haven't, I strongly suggest you get off your well formed butt and do so immediately. Bri-Bri is toast, your only question should be whether you want to be toasted with him.

Love and kisses, Otto

PS: If LIX doesn't give you a copy, don't worry David. You can read it on the blog here tomorrow. Have a nice evening.


So I get these mails from Regulus (REG.v) shareholders...

...some of them worried about the price action, others asking whether this is a good buying opportunity, some just slightly mystified with its weak performance recently. So even though I'd already wrote things that were nice and clear on the subject, such as this in IKN432 dated August 27th, which was after the big pop the stock enjoyed from the recent drill results...
"When I sat down with the REG guys 10 days ago, one of the things I said is that I’d be surprised if the stock didn’t go under $2.00 again and to that, they didn’t bat an eyelid. At the time it was trading thinly at $2.20, so it wasn’t that far away, not only that but I didn’t expect the strong move higher we saw last week. I’ll stick to that prediction..."
...all the same I decided to do something about the mails and the worries shareholders might have. So this afternoon sat down for more than an hour with REG CEO John Black along with two other directors of REG.v and asked them a whole bunch of questions.

The bottom line: Absolutely nothing wrong with the company, the project, the collaborative agreement with Coimolache or anything else you can imagine. Next drill results out November. More details in IKN441 on Sunday.

Whistling past the graveyard, Almadex (AMZ.v) shareholders edition

Less than a month ago on the day the Secretary of Economic Development in Veracruz, Mexico, told the world that mining operations would not be permitted in Veracruz, Candelaria Mining (CAND.v) was a 94c stock. Since then CAND.v has also withdrawn its permitting applications due to "...the current political climate and upcoming state and federal elections". So cute. Today CAND.v is priced at 62c (there's a chunk of 65c at the ask if you really really want it), i.e. it's dropped 34% in four weeks. 

How shareholders of Almadex (AMZ.v) can believe that think the current state of affairs in Veracruz only applies to CAND.v and not to them is beyond my ken.

10/23/17

One year on from the Daniel Ameduri Inca One (IO.v) scam pump

Back on October 16th 2016 this humble corner of cyberspace ran this post which highlighted how Inca One (IO.v), a tiny toll mill operation in Peru, had paid $450,000 to Daniel Ameduri for a promo pump job. At that time IO.v was a 40c and 43c stock, so let's see how the clientele of Ameduri who bought into this slice of arch stupidity got on?


Closed at 6c tonight. Hmmmm...that probably means...

Yes indeed, if you'd stuck $10,000 into IO.v at Ameduri's behest at the time (and obviously many people did just that, you'd now be the proud owner of $1,500 in shares. Winning.

Hive and Oilprice: À la recherche du pump perdu

The pigs are gorging deeply at the trough these days.

Here's the situation. Way back before the pump in Frank Giustra's HIVE Blockchain (HIVE.v) began, the Giustra empire was doing its normal thing and handing around large options payoffs to the people who would write the company up and stuff it down the throats of retail when it came the time to hit the big GO! button. One of those recipients was James Burgess (aka Stafford) over at oilprice.com (you may remember him for that painfully stupid pump on Klondike Gold (KG.v) back in August, so over the top that IIROC had to step in and get KG to retract it (by the way, KG.v is back under the pre-pump price...what a shocker)) and this particular parasite paid pump piece of crud was given one million share options of HIVE priced at just two cents!

So comes the day of the big pumpo and oilprice published its piece too but Frank G wasn't happy in some form or another with oilprice.com (probably because those shares are now worth way more than even he thought they'd go) and complained that oilprice.com didn't do enough, the piece wasn't good, it didn't work etc. So Frank charged his two paid lackeys, Tommy 'Lord Haw-Haw' Humphreys and Brian Bri-Bri Paes-Braga, to go round to Mr Stafford's gig and get the shares back. So far Haw-Haw and Bri-Bri have tried legal threats and they've now gone into the physical threat world (hey, maybe take that seriously, I wouldn't like to see Tommy throwing his weight around) but to no avail, Burgess/Stafford isn't handing back his easy money payola.

How this all turns out is yet to be seen. Will Burgess/Stafford be able to buy a new Ferrari to race Bri-Bri's down the street? Will Frank get his juicy shares back? Will the goons get into trouble with their paymaster for doing this whole collection thing so clumsily that they end up on IKN again? We shall wait and we shall see.

The IKN Weekly, out now


Yo, Ward!

IKN440 has just been sent to subscribers. Late but worth it, we burned the midnight candle this week to incorporate the news out of Argentina tonight and make an active call on it, too. That and silver things as well. All good fun.

10/22/17

The 2017 Puskas Award

The FIFA competition for the best goal of the year is on, with the award presented tomorrow Monday evening. The three goals up for the title are on this link and IKN calls the Giroud goal as the best.

UPDATE: toldyaz.

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Be afraid, Frank Giustra. Be very afraid". Think Clinton Cash was last year's story? You ain't seen nothing yet. It might take a few weeks, but it's going to happen.

Second Place: "Michael Ballanger has been a naughty boy". The post that got Michael Ballanger all hot under the collar and chemically riled up, to the point of sending crazy missives full of bullshit lies to the world. Poor old Mikey, lets hope his IIROC hearing goes well, he must be feeling stressed about it all.
 
First Place: "Marc Faber can go fuck himself". And the most visited by a mile, too. There's also a short message on this subject in IKN440 for subscribers, out tonight. Moving on, this week came with a sudden rash of swearing on the blog what with this title line and Ballanger's wonderstuff. Though not prohibited, it won't become a habit again.